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Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Vs
33%
25%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that is the most likely outcome at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% chance. Dungannon Swifts, at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Carrick Rangers, on the road, average 2.1 scored and 1.2 conceded. The favoured result is an away win, with a 42% probability, followed by a 33% chance of a home win and a 25% chance of a draw. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Over 1.5 (85.0%), Away +2 handicap (84.1%) and Away over 0.5 goals (82.8%). Dungannon Swifts are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Cliftonville 2-0, while Carrick Rangers come off a 4-0 victory over Bangor.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dungannon Swifts win
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-805L01L08L31W21W13L13L10W20W20WA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.031.641.640.942.38
vs Stronger (10)0.603.500.752.750.504.00
vs Similar (20)1.601.302.001.201.201.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W11D23L30W32W13L10W21W02L40WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.601.871.732.001.47
vs Stronger (11)1.182.000.672.001.802.00
vs Similar (19)2.371.372.671.562.101.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
0-1
5.6%
1-3
5.2%
0-0
4.8%
Dungannon Swifts goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
04.8%5.6%5.8%3.4%1.5%
14.7%11%8.8%5.2%2.3%
24.4%7.7%6.7%4.0%1.7%
32.2%3.9%3.4%2.0%0.9%
40.8%1.5%1.3%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dungannon Swifts goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Dungannon Swifts is 0.09 points worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Dungannon Swifts is 0.50 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Dungannon Swifts is 0.44 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dungannon Swifts or Draw
57.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Dungannon Swifts + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts or Carrick Rangers
75.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Dungannon Swifts + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carrick Rangers
67.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
25%
42%
covers Draw + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dungannon Swifts, so a minus line means Dungannon Swifts give that many goals of a start and Carrick Rangers receive them. At -1, Dungannon Swifts must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dungannon Swifts win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts -2
6.1%
Draw -2
9.8%
Carrick Rangers +2
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts -1
15.9%
Draw -1
16.7%
Carrick Rangers +1
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts +1
57.5%
Draw +1
19.4%
Carrick Rangers -1
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts +2
76.9%
Draw +2
13.1%
Carrick Rangers -2
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D03L11D11D01L01L10W10W00DA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.901.070.640.251.12
vs Stronger (10)0.301.500.751.000.001.83
vs Similar (20)0.800.601.200.500.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L11D20W01L11D00D20W00D10WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.530.930.671.270.40
vs Stronger (11)0.820.640.330.831.400.40
vs Similar (19)1.260.471.330.561.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L05L20W10W12L12L00D10W20WA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.130.571.000.691.25
vs Stronger (10)0.302.000.001.750.502.17
vs Similar (20)0.800.700.800.700.800.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W12L10W31W02L10W01L02L30WH·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05H·POR08/08A·LIM15/08H·COL22/08A·BAN29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.070.931.070.731.07
vs Stronger (11)0.361.360.331.170.401.60
vs Similar (19)1.110.891.331.000.900.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Under 6.595.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.8%-------
Under 5.588.5%-------
Over 1.585.0%-------
Away +2 handicap84.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals80.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.2%-------
Home +2 handicap76.9%-------
Under 4.576.5%-------
Home or Away75.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals74.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
DS wins
1
Draws
2
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from DS
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
24/01/26ACarrick Rangers Vs DS5-1
13/12/25ACarrick Rangers Vs DS3-3
23/08/25HDS Vs Carrick Rangers0-2
15/02/25HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
23/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs DS0-1
28/09/24HDS Vs Carrick Rangers4-0
06/04/24HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-2

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS0-2
22/08/26HDS Vs Bangor2-0
15/08/26APortadown Vs DS0-1
08/08/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-3
12/05/26ALinfield Vs DS3-1
09/05/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-2
06/05/26HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
25/04/26ALarne Vs DS8-0
18/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
11/04/26AGlentoran Vs DS5-0

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ABangor Vs CR0-4
22/08/26HCR Vs Coleraine FC0-2
15/08/26ALimavady United Vs CR1-2
08/08/26HCR Vs Portadown1-0
06/05/26ADungannon Swifts Vs CR3-1
25/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CR2-3
18/04/26ABangor Vs CR0-3
11/04/26HCR Vs Ballymena United2-3
07/04/26APortadown Vs CR1-1
28/03/26HCR Vs Crusaders FC6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.40
HomeLLWLW1.68
AwayLWLWW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%56%36%
AVG goals2.983.002.96
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored1.181.520.84
Conceded1.801.482.12
BTTS40%52%28%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.46
HomeWWLWL1.36
AwayWWLWW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals3.323.323.32
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.761.641.88
Conceded1.561.681.44
BTTS66%64%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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