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Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders FC Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Vs
32%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dungannon Swifts win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W30W11D13L01L10W20W10W12LH·LOU16/04H·GLE20/04H·BAL27/04H·COL10/08A·LIN17/08A·CLI20/08H·BAL24/08A·LOU31/08H·GLE07/09A·POR13/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.531.941.311.641.79
vs Stronger (7)1.142.140.501.752.002.67
vs Similar (23)2.001.352.421.171.551.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L31W32W02L31W10W10W11D21W01LA·GLE27/04H·CAR01/05H·COL06/05A·CAE11/07H·CAE17/07A·GLE09/08A·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.131.381.251.291.00
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.252.000.500.50
vs Similar (24)1.581.041.751.001.421.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-0 ✓
7.8%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.5%
Dungannon Swifts goals ↓
Crusaders FC goals →
01234
08.6%8.9%7.0%3.2%1.1%
17.8%14%8.6%4.0%1.4%
25.5%7.7%5.3%2.4%0.8%
32.3%3.1%2.2%1.0%0.3%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dungannon Swifts goals (down), columns = Crusaders FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Dungannon Swifts is 0.12 points better than Crusaders FC in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Dungannon Swifts is 0.14 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Dungannon Swifts is 0.12 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W10W03L00D10W10W10W10WH·LOU16/04H·GLE20/04H·BAL27/04H·COL10/08A·LIN17/08A·CLI20/08H·BAL24/08A·LOU31/08H·GLE07/09A·POR13/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.531.120.380.860.71
vs Stronger (7)0.711.140.501.001.001.33
vs Similar (23)1.090.351.330.170.820.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W21W02L01L10W10W11D01L01LA·GLE27/04H·CAR01/05H·COL06/05A·CAE11/07H·CAE17/07A·GLE09/08A·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.500.690.570.50
vs Stronger (6)0.000.670.000.750.000.50
vs Similar (24)0.670.580.670.670.670.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W20W01L10W01L00D10W00D02LH·LOU16/04H·GLE20/04H·BAL27/04H·COL10/08A·LIN17/08A·CLI20/08H·BAL24/08A·LOU31/08H·GLE07/09A·POR13/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.000.810.940.791.07
vs Stronger (7)0.431.000.000.751.001.33
vs Similar (23)0.911.001.081.000.731.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W11D00D30W00D00D00D20W00DA·GLE27/04H·CAR01/05H·COL06/05A·CAE11/07H·CAE17/07A·GLE09/08A·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.880.560.710.50
vs Stronger (6)0.330.830.251.250.500.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.461.080.330.750.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts's squad is €1m more valuable than Crusaders FC's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Crusaders FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Crusaders FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Crusaders FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
DS wins
1
Draws
5
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts vs Crusaders FC · H/A from DS
DateH/AGameScore
10/02/24HDS Vs Crusaders FC2-2
21/10/23HDS Vs Crusaders FC1-4
15/08/23ACrusaders FC Vs DS2-0
11/02/23ACrusaders FC Vs DS3-0
29/10/22HDS Vs Crusaders FC0-2
13/08/22ACrusaders FC Vs DS5-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/24APortadown Vs DS2-1
07/09/24HDS Vs Glentoran1-0
31/08/24ALoughgall Vs DS0-2
24/08/24HDS Vs Ballymena United1-0
20/08/24ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
17/08/24ALinfield Vs DS3-1
10/08/24HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-1
27/04/24HDS Vs Ballymena United3-0
20/04/24HDS Vs Glenavon FC2-0
16/04/24HDS Vs Loughgall2-0

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24HCF Vs Glenavon FC0-1
31/08/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
24/08/24HCF Vs Cliftonville FC1-1
20/08/24ABallymena United Vs CF0-1
09/08/24AGlentoran Vs CF0-1
17/07/24HCF Vs Caernarfon Town3-1
11/07/24ACaernarfon Town Vs CF2-0
06/05/24HCF Vs Coleraine FC3-2
01/05/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
27/04/24AGlentoran Vs CF4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.32
HomeWWDWW1.65
AwayWLLWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals3.243.233.25
Over 1.5 %86%85%88%
Over 2.5 %64%65%62%
Over 3.5 %40%46%33%
Scored1.581.811.33
Conceded1.661.421.92
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet22%31%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.76
HomeWWDWL1.62
AwayWLLWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%46%58%
AVG goals2.682.692.67
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %26%19%33%
Scored1.581.581.58
Conceded1.101.121.08
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet32%27%38%
Corners16.006.0026.00
Cards7.504.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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