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Dungannon Swifts vs Linfield Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 1-3
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Vs
28%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dungannon Swifts win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win✓ Hit
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-615L02L06L32W14L01L31W12L01L12LA·CAR24/01H·GLE31/01A·LIN10/02H·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.631.621.311.002.00
vs Stronger (8)1.122.121.401.800.672.67
vs Similar (22)1.411.451.731.091.091.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W60W30W41W10W11D02L31W02L11DH·BAL31/01H·DUN10/02A·GLE14/02A·DUN17/02H·GLE21/02A·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.802.380.541.061.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.641.000.500.500.711.29
vs Weaker (19)2.210.683.220.561.300.80
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.3%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.0%
Dungannon Swifts goals ↓
Linfield goals →
01234
09.7%10%8.0%3.7%1.3%
17.9%14%8.8%4.1%1.4%
25.0%7.0%4.8%2.2%0.8%
31.8%2.5%1.8%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dungannon Swifts goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Dungannon Swifts is 0.50 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.77).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Dungannon Swifts is 0.47 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.64).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Dungannon Swifts is 1.13 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.87).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L02L11D11D00D30W02L01L11DA·CAR24/01H·GLE31/01A·LIN10/02H·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.731.060.560.500.93
vs Stronger (8)0.501.000.800.800.001.33
vs Similar (22)0.910.641.180.450.640.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W10W11D00D01L00D11D01L10WH·BAL31/01H·DUN10/02A·GLE14/02A·DUN17/02H·GLE21/02A·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.200.920.150.470.24
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.270.180.000.250.430.14
vs Weaker (19)0.890.211.330.110.500.30
Clean sheet %80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L04L21W03L01L01L10W00D01LA·CAR24/01H·GLE31/01A·LIN10/02H·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.900.560.750.501.07
vs Stronger (8)0.621.120.601.000.671.33
vs Similar (22)0.500.820.550.640.451.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W20W30W10W10W02L20W01L01LH·BAL31/01H·DUN10/02A·GLE14/02A·DUN17/02H·GLE21/02A·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.601.460.380.590.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.500.250.291.14
vs Weaker (19)1.320.471.890.440.800.50
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
DS wins
0
Draws
7
LIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts vs Linfield · H/A from DS
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/26HDS Vs Linfield1-4
10/02/26ALinfield Vs DS6-0
10/08/25ALinfield Vs DS3-0
12/04/25ALinfield Vs DS2-0
24/03/25HDS Vs Linfield0-3
17/12/24HDS Vs Linfield0-1
17/08/24ALinfield Vs DS3-1
27/01/24ALinfield Vs DS1-2

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-2
21/03/26HDS Vs Bangor0-1
13/03/26ALarne Vs DS2-1
28/02/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC3-1
21/02/26APortadown Vs DS1-0
17/02/26HDS Vs Linfield1-4
13/02/26HDS Vs Cliftonville FC3-2
10/02/26ALinfield Vs DS6-0
31/01/26HDS Vs Glentoran0-2
24/01/26ACarrick Rangers Vs DS5-1

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26AGlentoran Vs LIN1-1
20/03/26ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN2-0
10/03/26HLIN Vs Portadown3-1
01/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs LIN2-0
24/02/26ALarne Vs LIN1-1
21/02/26HLIN Vs Glentoran1-0
17/02/26ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN1-4
14/02/26AGlenavon FC Vs LIN0-3
10/02/26HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts6-0
31/01/26HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.34
HomeWLWLL1.52
AwayLLLLL1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%35%
AVG goals2.822.962.65
Over 1.5 %78%81%74%
Over 2.5 %48%56%39%
Over 3.5 %28%33%22%
Scored1.181.410.91
Conceded1.641.561.74
BTTS42%52%30%
Clean Sheet26%22%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.78
HomeDWWWW2.50
AwayWDLLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%79%27%
AVG goals2.362.672.08
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.582.171.04
Conceded0.780.501.04
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet46%54%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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