The model favours an away win, with Linfield holding a 42 % chance of triumph, Dungannon Swifts 30 % and a draw 28 %. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, but the most likely total is two goals, a 26 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5 % chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Dungannon Swifts, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded, while Linfield, on the road to a weaker side, average 1.71 scored and 0.86 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Under 5.5 (94.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.0 %), Away +2 handicap (87.2 %) and Under 4.5 (86.8 %). Both teams are on a two-game winning streak, with Dungannon Swifts recently beating Bangor 2-0 and Linfield defeating Cliftonville FC 1-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dungannon Swifts win
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dungannon Swifts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.64
1.64
0.94
2.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
3.50
0.75
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.30
2.00
1.20
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.94
1.00
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.23
0.62
1.12
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
0.82
3.11
0.89
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.6%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
Dungannon Swifts goals ↓
Linfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
9.9%
8.6%
4.5%
1.7%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.2%
6.5%
5.1%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.5%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dungannon Swifts goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Dungannon Swifts is 0.50 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Dungannon Swifts is 0.47 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Dungannon Swifts is 1.13 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dungannon Swifts or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Dungannon Swifts + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts or Linfield
72.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Dungannon Swifts + Linfield
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Linfield
74.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Draw + Linfield
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dungannon Swifts, so a minus line means Dungannon Swifts give that many goals of a start and Linfield receive them. At -1, Dungannon Swifts must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dungannon Swifts win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.1%
Linfield +2
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts -1
10.1%
Draw -1
15.2%
Linfield +1
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts +1
53.1%
Draw +1
22.3%
Linfield -1
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dungannon Swifts)
Dungannon Swifts +2
75.4%
Draw +2
14.6%
Linfield -2
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dungannon Swifts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
1.07
0.64
0.25
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.76
0.47
0.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.54
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.29
1.22
0.22
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.2%
Under 0.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.3%
Under 1.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dungannon Swifts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.57
1.00
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.00
1.75
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.18
0.53
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.38
0.38
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
Under 0.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.5%
Under 1.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Dungannon Swifts and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Crusaders FC
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor