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Džiugas Telšiai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Vs
19%
26%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W21W12L20W13L11D11D12L10WH·HEG04/08A·PAN08/08A·BAB12/08H·KAU17/08A·FK 22/08H·ŠIA31/08H·DAI12/09H·HEG17/09A·KAU21/09A·BAN26/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.070.731.131.271.00
vs Stronger (13)0.691.150.571.290.831.00
vs Similar (16)1.251.060.881.001.621.12
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W22D21W11D22D21W20W20W31WH·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.101.380.751.791.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.231.691.291.291.172.17
vs Weaker (17)1.820.651.440.332.251.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.5%
0-2
10.8%
1-2 ✓
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.5%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
01234
08.5%11%11%6.1%2.6%
15.5%12%9.7%5.5%2.4%
23.0%5.1%4.4%2.5%1.1%
30.9%1.5%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.44 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.47 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.11 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W01L10W12L00D00D12L00DH·HEG04/08A·PAN08/08A·BAB12/08H·KAU17/08A·FK 22/08H·ŠIA31/08H·DAI12/09H·HEG17/09A·KAU21/09A·BAN26/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.500.270.670.670.33
vs Stronger (13)0.380.540.140.570.670.50
vs Similar (16)0.500.500.380.750.620.25
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D11D00D02L10W10W10W20WH·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.560.310.861.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.541.150.570.430.502.00
vs Weaker (17)0.820.350.560.221.120.50
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D11D10W01L11D11D00D10WH·HEG04/08A·PAN08/08A·BAB12/08H·KAU17/08A·FK 22/08H·ŠIA31/08H·DAI12/09H·HEG17/09A·KAU21/09A·BAN26/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.470.470.600.67
vs Stronger (13)0.310.620.430.710.170.50
vs Similar (16)0.750.560.500.251.000.88
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D10W11D20W11D10W10W11DH·KAU04/08H·SUD07/08A·ŠIA11/08H·FK 17/08H·DAI20/08A·HEG24/08H·PAN31/08A·BAN13/09A·FK 19/09A·SUD29/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.400.810.440.930.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.710.860.670.17
vs Weaker (17)1.000.290.890.111.120.50
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €3m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€5m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
DT wins
1
Draws
6
FZV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Džiugas Telšiai vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT2-0
31/05/25HDT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1
02/03/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT2-1
09/11/24HDT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0
18/08/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT2-1
19/06/24HDT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-4
21/04/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT3-1
27/08/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs DT4-1

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25ABanga Vs DT0-1
21/09/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT2-1
17/09/25HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
12/09/25HDT Vs Dainava1-1
31/08/25HDT Vs Šiauliai1-3
22/08/25AFK Trakai Vs DT0-2
17/08/25HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2
12/08/25ABabrungas Vs DT1-2
08/08/25APanevėžys Vs DT0-1
04/08/25HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-3
19/09/25AFK Trakai Vs FZV0-2
13/09/25ABanga Vs FZV0-2
31/08/25HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
24/08/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV2-2
20/08/25HFZV Vs Dainava1-1
17/08/25HFZV Vs FK Trakai2-1
11/08/25AŠiauliai Vs FZV2-2
07/08/25HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
04/08/25HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.32
HomeLLLDD0.74
AwayWWWLW1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%13%59%
AVG goals2.242.352.15
Over 1.5 %64%74%56%
Over 2.5 %38%35%41%
Over 3.5 %14%17%11%
Scored1.040.871.19
Conceded1.201.480.96
BTTS42%52%33%
Clean Sheet30%13%44%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.74
HomeLWWDW1.96
AwayDDWWW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%39%
AVG goals2.722.522.96
Over 1.5 %80%78%83%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %30%22%39%
Scored1.681.671.70
Conceded1.040.851.26
BTTS50%56%43%
Clean Sheet36%41%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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