Defensive numbers set the tone: the home side averages only 0.17 goals for and 1.67 against, while the visitors boast 1.6 for and just 0.4 conceded on the road. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 50% chance, a 30% draw, and a 20% home win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, but the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 14.9% probability. The prediction leans on a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent form offers a narrative: both teams come off a 2-2 draw, with the home side’s last five results showing a draw, loss, loss, win, draw, and the away side a draw, draw, loss, loss, loss. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 83% probability. All figures are presented exactly as required.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the away win, failed to materialise, with the home side taking a 2-0 victory. The model had picked an away win with a 50% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 2-0 gave the home side a win, extending their recent form note of coming off a draw. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 83% probability. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, but the match ended 2-0. The model’s predicted total of 2.1 goals fell short of the actual 2-0 result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai win✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.10
0.57
1.57
1.06
2.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.77
0.17
1.67
1.00
3.71
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.59
0.88
1.50
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.13
2.73
1.07
0.93
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.60
2.00
1.60
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (10)
2.90
0.20
4.20
0.00
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.3%
No
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.9%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
13.0%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
7.8%
0-3
5.1%
2-1
4.8%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
15%
11%
5.1%
1.8%
1
7.8%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
3.5%
4.8%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
3
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.80 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (0.84 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.99 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Šiauliai
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Dainava
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.25 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.29
0.57
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.08
0.00
0.67
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.27
0.40
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.00
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.23
0.29
1.00
0.50
1.44
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.69
0.17
1.00
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.47
0.67
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
1.00
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.20
2.40
0.00
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Šiauliai
Banga
Suduva Marijampole
Dainava
FK Trakai
Be1 NFA