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Džiugas Telšiai vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 0-1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Vs
21%
29%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W01L02L10W10W10W01L32W20WA·KAU08/03A·DAI14/03A·SUD28/03H·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.170.921.691.120.76
vs Stronger (16)0.941.441.002.140.890.89
vs Similar (14)1.140.860.831.171.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D32W00D00D31W20W01L10W31WH·DŽI08/03A·FK 16/03A·ŠIA29/03A·FK 06/04H·SUD12/04H·HEG16/04A·PAN19/04H·BAN27/04A·NEP30/04H·FK 04/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.001.201.001.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.570.931.830.501.381.25
vs Weaker (16)1.061.060.781.331.430.71
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1 ✓
13.4%
0-0
11.3%
0-2
10.6%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.2%
0-3
5.1%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
01234
011%13%11%5.1%1.9%
17.2%14%9.0%4.3%1.6%
23.6%5.2%3.8%1.8%0.7%
31.0%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.81 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 2.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.83 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.53 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L00D10W00D00D01L10W20WA·KAU08/03A·DAI14/03A·SUD28/03H·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.460.850.470.29
vs Stronger (16)0.440.620.430.860.440.44
vs Similar (14)0.500.430.500.830.500.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L00D00D10W00D00D00D10WH·DŽI08/03A·FK 16/03A·ŠIA29/03A·FK 06/04H·SUD12/04H·HEG16/04A·PAN19/04H·BAN27/04A·NEP30/04H·FK 04/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.430.330.200.530.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.430.640.330.170.501.00
vs Weaker (16)0.440.250.330.220.570.29
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D02L00D10W10W00D22D00DA·KAU08/03A·DAI14/03A·SUD28/03H·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.460.850.650.47
vs Stronger (16)0.500.810.571.290.440.44
vs Similar (14)0.640.430.330.330.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D20W00D00D21W20W01L10W21WH·DŽI08/03A·FK 16/03A·ŠIA29/03A·FK 06/04H·SUD12/04H·HEG16/04A·PAN19/04H·BAN27/04A·NEP30/04H·FK 04/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.570.870.800.870.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.140.291.500.330.880.25
vs Weaker (16)0.620.810.441.110.860.43
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €5m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€5m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's attack is €3m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DT wins
2
Draws
4
KŽ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Džiugas Telšiai vs Kauno Žalgiris · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT1-2
27/10/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT0-1
04/08/24HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-3
02/06/24HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-1
10/04/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT3-0
21/10/23HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-2
06/08/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT0-0
02/06/23HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HDT Vs Dainava2-0
29/04/25ACementininkas Akmenė Vs DT2-3
26/04/25HDT Vs Šiauliai0-1
19/04/25AFK Trakai Vs DT0-1
16/04/25ABanga Vs DT0-1
12/04/25APanevėžys Vs DT0-1
06/04/25HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2
28/03/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT1-0
14/03/25ADainava Vs DT0-2
08/03/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT1-2

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/25HKŽ Vs FK Trakai3-1
30/04/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs KŽ0-1
27/04/25HKŽ Vs Banga0-1
19/04/25APanevėžys Vs KŽ0-2
16/04/25HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
12/04/25HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0
06/04/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ0-0
29/03/25AŠiauliai Vs KŽ2-3
16/03/25AFK Trakai Vs KŽ0-0
08/03/25HKŽ Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.42
HomeLWLLW1.19
AwayLWWWW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%48%
AVG goals2.382.382.38
Over 1.5 %64%71%59%
Over 2.5 %46%38%52%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.120.951.24
Conceded1.261.431.14
BTTS38%33%41%
Clean Sheet36%29%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.66
HomeLDWLW1.56
AwayDWDWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals2.442.362.52
Over 1.5 %60%60%60%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.461.321.60
Conceded0.981.040.92
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet36%24%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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