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Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 3-3
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Vs
25%
32%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L21W01L33D04L03L13L10W00D02LA·HEG25/05A·FKS28/05H·KAU02/06A·ŠIA15/06H·FK 19/06A·TRA22/06A·DAI26/06H·SUD30/06A·BAN06/07H·HEG19/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.200.931.071.121.31
vs Stronger (16)0.751.440.381.121.121.75
vs Similar (14)1.360.931.671.001.120.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L03L20W31W01L01L30W11D12L04LA·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06A·SUD26/06H·BAN29/06H·HEG04/07H·HJK09/07A·HJK16/07H·KAU20/07H·JAG23/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.130.730.930.931.33
vs Stronger (1)0.004.000.004.00--
vs Similar (23)0.911.260.820.911.001.58
vs Weaker (6)0.670.170.670.000.670.33
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
14.1%
1-0
9.7%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.7%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
014%14%9.2%3.7%1.1%
19.7%14%7.8%3.1%0.9%
24.7%5.6%3.3%1.3%0.4%
31.3%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.03 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.03 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.22 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D00D31W03L02L10W00D00D00DA·HEG25/05A·FKS28/05H·KAU02/06A·ŠIA15/06H·FK 19/06A·TRA22/06A·DAI26/06H·SUD30/06A·BAN06/07H·HEG19/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.400.210.430.690.38
vs Stronger (16)0.310.500.000.500.620.50
vs Similar (14)0.640.290.500.330.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L20W10W01L00D10W11D11D03LA·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06A·SUD26/06H·BAN29/06H·HEG04/07H·HJK09/07A·HJK16/07H·KAU20/07H·JAG23/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.470.400.330.330.60
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (23)0.390.430.360.180.420.67
vs Weaker (6)0.330.170.670.000.000.33
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W01L02L01L01L03L10W00D02LA·HEG25/05A·FKS28/05H·KAU02/06A·ŠIA15/06H·FK 19/06A·TRA22/06A·DAI26/06H·SUD30/06A·BAN06/07H·HEG19/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.710.640.440.94
vs Stronger (16)0.440.940.380.620.501.25
vs Similar (14)0.710.641.170.670.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D21W00D01L20W00D01L01LA·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06A·SUD26/06H·BAN29/06H·HEG04/07H·HJK09/07A·HJK16/07H·KAU20/07H·JAG23/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.330.600.600.73
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (23)0.520.830.450.730.580.92
vs Weaker (6)0.330.000.000.000.670.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €1m less valuable than Panevėžys's (€5m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
DT wins
3
Draws
5
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24HDT Vs Panevėžys0-0
12/11/23APanevėžys Vs DT0-0
19/08/23HDT Vs Panevėžys0-3
11/06/23APanevėžys Vs DT4-0
19/04/23HDT Vs Panevėžys0-3
23/10/22HDT Vs Panevėžys0-0
27/08/22APanevėžys Vs DT3-2
15/05/22APanevėžys Vs DT1-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/24HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2
06/07/24ABanga Vs DT0-0
30/06/24HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
26/06/24ADainava Vs DT3-1
22/06/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs DT3-0
19/06/24HDT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-4
15/06/24AŠiauliai Vs DT3-3
02/06/24HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-1
28/05/24AFKS Ukmergė Vs DT1-2
25/05/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs DT2-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/24HPAN Vs Jagiellonia0-4
20/07/24HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2
16/07/24AHJK Helsinki Vs PAN1-1
09/07/24HPAN Vs HJK Helsinki3-0
04/07/24HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
29/06/24HPAN Vs Banga0-1
26/06/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN1-3
22/06/24HPAN Vs Dainava2-0
19/06/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs PAN3-0
16/06/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.20
HomeDLLWL1.21
AwayWDLLD1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.162.172.15
Over 1.5 %60%67%54%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %18%12%23%
Scored0.900.920.88
Conceded1.261.251.27
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet36%29%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.60
HomeLLWLL1.65
AwayLLLWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.022.081.96
Over 1.5 %64%69%58%
Over 2.5 %34%35%33%
Over 3.5 %12%15%8%
Scored1.181.311.04
Conceded0.840.770.92
BTTS34%27%42%
Clean Sheet48%54%42%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards5.758.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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