The model favours an away win for Panevėžys, with a 42% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a home win. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14% probability. Džiugas Telšiai, playing at home against a stronger side, average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Panevėžys, on the road versus a weaker opponent, average 2.83 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.9%), Under 4.5 (89.3%) and Away +2 handicap (88.2%). The recent form shows Džiugas Telšiai after two straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to FK Zalgiris Vilnius, while Panevėžys comes off a win and a 2-0 victory over the same opponent.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai win
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
0.93
1.36
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.79
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.00
0.88
0.88
2.12
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.25
0.58
1.89
1.39
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.14
1.22
0.44
1.54
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.88
1.33
1.00
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.6%
0-2
7.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
5.2%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.4%
7.7%
3.7%
1.4%
1
7.3%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.0%
7.2%
5.2%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.8%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.23 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.02 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.57 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Džiugas Telšiai or Draw
57.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
42%
covers Džiugas Telšiai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai or Panevėžys
71.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
42%
covers Džiugas Telšiai + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Panevėžys
70.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
42%
covers Draw + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Džiugas Telšiai, so a minus line means Džiugas Telšiai give that many goals of a start and Panevėžys receive them. At -1, Džiugas Telšiai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Džiugas Telšiai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Džiugas Telšiai)
Džiugas Telšiai -2
3.9%
Draw -2
8.4%
Panevėžys +2
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Džiugas Telšiai)
Džiugas Telšiai -1
12.3%
Draw -1
16.8%
Panevėžys +1
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Džiugas Telšiai)
Džiugas Telšiai +1
57.5%
Draw +1
21.3%
Panevėžys -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Džiugas Telšiai)
Džiugas Telšiai +2
78.8%
Draw +2
13.1%
Panevėžys -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.36
0.57
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.79
0.33
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.31
0.38
0.25
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.58
0.17
0.94
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.56
0.11
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.62
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.67
0.42
0.94
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €1m less valuable than Panevėžys's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai