Defensive solidity will set the tone for this low-scoring encounter, as both sides have struggled to find the net against comparable opposition. The model favours a draw, with a 37% chance of a tie, a 32% chance of a home win and a 31% chance of an away win. The average goal output is 1.7, with the most likely total of one goal at 29%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 19.9% probability. Džiugas Telšiai, playing at home, has averaged 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar teams, while Šiauliai, on the road, has also scored 0.0 but concedes only 0.33. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 90.9% and Under 2.5 goals at 76.1%. The home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage 37%, and the away win percentage 31%.
Results analysis
The match saw the draw that the model predicted, with a 0-0 scoreline confirming the final result. The favourite was a Draw, assigned a 37% probability, and the model’s pick proved correct. The model’s selections also hit: Under 3.5 goals came in at 90.9% and Under 2.5 at 76.1%. The game extended Džiugas Telšiai’s recent run, coming off a draw, while Šiauliai were after two straight defeats. The match finished 0-0, matching the most likely 1-1 score and the 29% chance of a single goal total. Overall, the Pythia model’s predictions were spot on.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
1.75
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.5%
Under 1.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.1%
Under 3.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.7%
No
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
19.9%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
14.4%
0-1
14.2%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
2-1
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
20%
14%
6.5%
1.8%
0.4%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
6.7%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
3
1.9%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.64 points worse than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.14 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.78 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
88% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.88
0.50
1.25
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €1m less valuable than Šiauliai's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Džiugas Telšiai and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →