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Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Vs
28%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W10W10W01L32W20W01L01L10WH·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05H·KAU09/05A·HEG17/05A·MIN21/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.170.921.751.110.78
vs Stronger (17)0.881.351.002.000.800.90
vs Similar (12)1.251.000.801.401.570.71
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W00D03L11D40W00D40W10W30WH·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04H·ŠIA19/04H·HEG27/04H·PAN04/05A·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.831.000.331.531.33
vs Stronger (5)1.201.401.001.001.331.67
vs Similar (25)1.280.721.000.231.581.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.2%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
011%11%8.2%3.5%1.1%
18.8%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.2%6.7%4.4%1.9%0.6%
31.8%2.3%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.36 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.31 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Džiugas Telšiai is 0.25 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D01L10W20W00D01L10WH·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05H·KAU09/05A·HEG17/05A·MIN21/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.500.920.500.33
vs Stronger (17)0.410.650.430.860.400.50
vs Similar (12)0.580.500.601.000.570.14
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W00D01L10W40W00D10W10W10WH·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04H·ŠIA19/04H·HEG27/04H·PAN04/05A·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.300.530.070.530.53
vs Stronger (5)0.400.200.500.000.330.33
vs Similar (25)0.560.320.540.080.580.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W10W00D22D00D01L00D00DH·HEG06/04A·PAN12/04A·BAN16/04A·FK 19/04H·ŠIA26/04A·CEM29/04H·DAI03/05H·KAU09/05A·HEG17/05A·MIN21/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.420.830.610.44
vs Stronger (17)0.470.710.571.140.400.40
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.200.401.000.57
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D02L01L00D00D30W00D20WH·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04H·ŠIA19/04H·HEG27/04H·PAN04/05A·VIL07/05A·BAN11/05A·DAI16/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.470.270.870.80
vs Stronger (5)0.801.200.501.001.001.33
vs Similar (25)0.640.400.460.150.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €1m less valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€5m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai's attack is €2m less valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Džiugas Telšiai and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
DT wins
2
Draws
3
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT1-0
14/09/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT2-1
30/06/24HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
11/05/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT0-1
16/03/24HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
07/10/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT0-0
29/07/23HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-1
26/05/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs DT1-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/25AMinija Vs DT0-1
17/05/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs DT1-0
09/05/25HDT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-1
03/05/25HDT Vs Dainava2-0
29/04/25ACementininkas Akmenė Vs DT2-3
26/04/25HDT Vs Šiauliai0-1
19/04/25AFK Trakai Vs DT0-1
16/04/25ABanga Vs DT0-1
12/04/25APanevėžys Vs DT0-1
06/04/25HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/25ADainava Vs SM0-3
11/05/25ABanga Vs SM0-1
07/05/25AVilnius FA Vs SM0-4
04/05/25HSM Vs Panevėžys0-0
27/04/25HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
19/04/25HSM Vs Šiauliai1-1
16/04/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM3-0
12/04/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-0
04/04/25HSM Vs Dainava1-0
28/03/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.34
HomeWLLWL1.05
AwayWWWLW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%29%48%
AVG goals2.402.382.41
Over 1.5 %64%71%59%
Over 2.5 %46%38%52%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.100.901.24
Conceded1.301.481.17
BTTS38%33%41%
Clean Sheet32%24%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.32
HomeWWDWD1.43
AwayDLWWW1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.021.522.44
Over 1.5 %52%39%63%
Over 2.5 %34%17%48%
Over 3.5 %18%13%22%
Scored1.040.871.19
Conceded0.980.651.26
BTTS36%30%41%
Clean Sheet40%48%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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