Suduva Marijampole is poised to take the win in this Lithuania: A Lyga match against Dzukija Telšiai, following their recent 2-game winning run. The away side has shown resilience on the road, scoring 0.5 goals on average against weaker opponents. However, Dzukija Telšiai has struggled at home, conceding 1.46 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model predicts an away win with a 42% probability, a draw with 31%, and a home win with 27%. The expected total goals stand at 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 14.4% probability.
Dzukija Telšiai's home form has been inconsistent, scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 1.46 against stronger opponents. Suduva Marijampole's away form is similarly modest, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 0.5 against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, while the Under 3.5 goals model selection is the most likely, occurring with an 80.2% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 42%.
Results analysis
The win extends Suduva Marijampole’s four-game winning run, while Džiugas Telšiai remain after two straight defeats. The model’s favourite, an away win at 43 %, proved right as Suduva edged Džiugas 0-2. The predicted 2-goal total came through, with the most likely score 1-1 or 0-1 falling short of the 0-2 result. Every suggested selection was settled: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.5 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 92.5 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 90.1 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 85.3 %, Under 3.5 hit at 80.2 %, Home under 1.5 goals hit at 74.6 %, while Home +2 handicap missed at 79.4 %. The model’s predictions largely delivered.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.77
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.10
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.89
1xBet
3.86
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.27
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.60
Dafabet
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Marathonbet
3.38
Betano
3.35
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.84
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.03
Unibet
1.88
Dafabet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
0.93
1.21
1.44
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.75
0.80
2.00
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.17
1.00
0.78
1.89
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.07
1.60
1.20
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.05
1.82
1.18
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
-
-
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.34-0.4%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.89+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.04-4.7%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.66+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
Unibet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
@ 3.57-5.6%
Under 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.22+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.88-1.8%
No
53.2%
@ 1.77+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
No
Unibet
1.93
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 5.95+7.1%
0-1
12.1%@ 5.70+4.6%
0-0
11.4%@ 7.47+5.7%
0-2 ✓
8.8%@ 7.61+3.2%
1-0
8.6%@ 9.16+3.9%
1-2
8.5%@ 7.66+3.0%
2-1
6.3%@ 12.10+2.8%
2-0
4.8%@ 18.89+2.5%
Džiugas Telšiai goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.8%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.6%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.2%
2
4.8%
6.3%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Džiugas Telšiai goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Džiugas Telšiai is 1.52 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Džiugas Telšiai is 1.19 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Džiugas Telšiai is 1.24 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 0.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Džiugas Telšiai or Draw✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.78
Edge
+5.9%
26%
31%
43%
covers Džiugas Telšiai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai or Suduva Marijampole✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
-3.4%
26%
31%
43%
covers Džiugas Telšiai + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
SBO
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Suduva Marijampole✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
-2.5%
26%
31%
43%
covers Draw + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.1%
@ 1.54+2.1%
Under
37.9%
@ 2.32-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.33
1xBet
2.29
10Bet
2.15
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.4%
@ 3.49-1.1%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.25+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 8.97-2.8%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.10
Bet365
8.00
Under
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 15.00-4.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.23-1.8%
Under
26.8%
@ 3.71+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
1xBet
3.88
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.50
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 2.10-6.1%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.65+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.57
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 4.60-5.3%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 10.00-4.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Under
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Džiugas Telšiai, so a minus line means Džiugas Telšiai give that many goals of a start and Suduva Marijampole receive them. At -1, Džiugas Telšiai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Džiugas Telšiai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.57
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.38
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.64
0.50
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.67
1.18
0.64
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
1.22
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
-
+8.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
74.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.8%
1.19
SBO
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.8%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Džiugas Telšiai's squad is €1m less valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai's attack is €2m less valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Džiugas Telšiai and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Džiugas Telšiai and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →