The match between East Fife and Alloa Athletic is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 39% against 31% for a home victory and 31% for a draw. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely total is two goals, a 28% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability, reflecting the teams’ similar form and defensive frailties.
East Fife, at home, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against opponents of similar strength. Alloa, playing away, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in comparable matchups. Both sides have recently drawn their last games, 0-0 against Airdrie United and 1-1 against Peterhead, hinting at cautious approaches.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (91.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.5%), and Away +2 handicap (87.6%). These picks underline the expectation of a low-scoring, tight contest with Alloa slightly ahead.
East Fife| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.53 | 0.93 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 1.33 | 0.92 | 1.58 | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Alloa Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.47 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.56 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.43 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| Clean sheet % | 32% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Alloa Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 14% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
East Fife
Alloa Athletic
East Fife| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 22.7 | 23.9 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 22.7 | 24.1 | 21.3 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 11.1 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 49% | 50% | 47% | 36% | 40% | 32% | 54% | 67% | 42% |
| % under line | 51% | 50% | 53% | 64% | 60% | 68% | 46% | 33% | 58% |
Alloa Athletic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (33) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 22.0 | - | 22.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 22.0 | - | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (15) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% |
East Fife| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Alloa Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.54 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.50 | 1.21 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 54% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
East Fife| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.50 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Alloa Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.93 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 97.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 90.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 81.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/07/24 | A | 0-0 |
East Fife| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
Alloa Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 14/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 2.2 | 40% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | - |
| 2 | Ross County | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Alloa Athletic | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 1.6 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | Peterhead | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | East Fife | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.0 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | - |
| 7 | Montrose | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 60% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Airdrie United | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 | Queen of the South | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | - |