Cove Rangers are likely to emerge victorious in this Scotland: League One encounter, with the model predicting an away win. The recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match, with East Fife coming off a defeat and Cove Rangers recovering from two straight defeats. East Fife have struggled at home, conceding an average of 1.8 goals, while Cove Rangers have averaged 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded as the away team against similar opponents.
The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. East Fife have scored an average of 1 goal at home and conceded 1.8, while Cove Rangers have scored 2.1 away goals and conceded 1.3.
The model suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, with a 78% chance of hitting. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 48%. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (78%), with no other selections provided.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came when East Fife took down Cove Rangers 2-0, extending their win streak despite being on a losing note. The pre-match favourite, Cove Rangers, failed to come through, with the model's call for an away win proving wrong, as the model pick was correct only 48% of the time. The model's selection, an away win, had a 48% probability of occurring, but it did not materialize. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a 78% probability, suggesting a more open game than the final scoreline would suggest.
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ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
East Fife winâ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers winâ Miss
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
East Fife
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.67
0.93
1.67
0.53
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
1.57
0.91
1.82
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
2.00
1.00
1.25
0.33
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.30
1.07
1.00
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.40
1.08
1.15
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
East Fife goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
8.9%
8.3%
4.5%
1.9%
1
5.9%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
2.2%
2
4.0%
6.6%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.5%
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Fife goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).
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ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
East Fife is 0.06 points worse than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.06).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
East Fife is 0.19 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.14).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
East Fife is 0.47 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.22).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
East Fife
For 3.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Fife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.1
2.9
3.3
2.6
22.8
23.4
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.2
9.4
9.1
3.1
3.4
2.7
22.7
23.5
21.9
vs Weaker (11)
10.7
12.0
9.4
2.5
2.8
2.3
23.1
23.0
23.2
% over line
49%
52%
45%
42%
46%
38%
56%
67%
45%
% under line
51%
48%
55%
58%
54%
62%
44%
33%
55%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.1
2.5
3.0
2.0
22.2
22.4
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.4
9.1
9.7
2.3
2.7
1.9
22.0
21.9
22.0
vs Weaker (11)
9.2
7.0
11.0
3.3
4.4
2.3
22.8
24.0
21.8
% over line
46%
33%
58%
34%
48%
20%
51%
44%
58%
% under line
54%
67%
42%
66%
52%
80%
49%
56%
42%
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.9%
Under 9.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.6%
Under 21.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
East Fife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.83
0.27
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.91
0.36
1.00
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.57
0.00
0.25
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.60
0.38
0.62
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
East Fife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.67
0.87
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.55
0.82
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.80
0.69
0.54
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
East Fife and Cove Rangers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and Cove Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and Cove Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
East Fife and Cove Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
Montrose
Airdrie United
Queen of the South