East Fife are the clear favourites, with a 42% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of an East Kilbride win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Home form shows East Fife scoring 0.92 and conceding 1.58 goals against similar opposition, while East Kilbride, on the road, averages 1.86 scored and 2.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.9%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%) and Under 4.5 (86.4%). East Fife have just drawn their last game, while East Kilbride exit a 0-4 defeat, setting the stage for a tight contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Fife win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
East Fife
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.53
0.93
1.60
0.53
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.33
0.92
1.58
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.67
0.33
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.73
1.40
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
2.09
2.25
1.50
1.86
2.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.26
2.91
1.36
1.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
8.0%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
East Fife goals ↓
East Kilbride goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.9%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.0%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.7%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Fife goals (down), columns = East Kilbride goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
East Fife is 0.28 points worse than East Kilbride in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
East Fife is 0.41 goals worse than East Kilbride in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
East Fife is 0.25 goals worse than East Kilbride in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
East Fife
For 3.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Fife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.3
2.5
2.9
2.2
22.7
23.9
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.2
9.4
9.1
2.6
2.9
2.2
22.7
24.1
21.3
vs Weaker (10)
11.1
12.5
9.8
2.2
2.8
1.8
22.9
23.2
22.5
% over line
49%
50%
47%
36%
42%
31%
54%
67%
42%
% under line
51%
50%
53%
64%
58%
69%
46%
33%
58%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.0
3.8
4.2
26.4
24.7
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.5
8.2
10.8
2.3
2.9
1.9
24.6
23.8
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
10.6
11.0
10.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
27.0
24.9
29.0
% over line
58%
56%
61%
60%
56%
64%
81%
78%
83%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
40%
44%
36%
19%
22%
17%
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.0%
Under 9.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.1%
Under 21.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
East Fife or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers East Fife + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Fife or East Kilbride
72.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers East Fife + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or East Kilbride
57.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Draw + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
East Fife over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to East Fife, so a minus line means East Fife give that many goals of a start and East Kilbride receive them. At -1, East Fife must win by two or more to land; a one-goal East Fife win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (East Fife)
East Fife -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.1%
East Kilbride +2
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (East Fife)
East Fife -1
21.5%
Draw -1
21.0%
East Kilbride +1
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (East Fife)
East Fife +1
70.5%
Draw +1
16.8%
East Kilbride -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (East Fife)
East Fife +2
87.3%
Draw +2
8.6%
East Kilbride -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
East Fife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.92
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.47
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.63
1.73
0.55
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
East Fife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.62
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.67
1.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
1.50
0.75
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.18
0.82
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
East Fife and East Kilbride have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and East Kilbride have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and East Kilbride have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
East Fife and East Kilbride have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
Peterhead
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South