The match is a fine-margin affair, with the model favouring a home win at 41 %. A draw sits at 29 % and an away victory at 30 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.6, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7 % chance. East Fife, at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, while Montrose, on the road, nets 1.27 and concedes 2.09. East Fife’s recent form shows a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Hamilton Academical, whereas Montrose comes off a 3-0 win over East Kilbride. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7 %), Under 5.5 (95.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.0 %), Under 4.5 (87.5 %), and Home +2 handicap (86.9 %). All figures are presented as percentages, with each pick listed once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Fife win
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
East Fife
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.53
0.93
1.60
0.53
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.33
0.92
1.58
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.67
0.33
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.09
2.27
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.56
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.4%
2-2
5.3%
East Fife goals ↓
Montrose goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.1%
14%
7.4%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
8.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Fife goals (down), columns = Montrose goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
East Fife is 0.17 points worse than Montrose in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
East Fife is 0.39 goals worse than Montrose in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
East Fife is 0.17 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
East Fife
For 3.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montrose
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Fife
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.3
2.5
2.9
2.2
22.7
23.9
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.2
9.4
9.1
2.6
2.9
2.2
22.7
24.1
21.3
vs Weaker (10)
11.1
12.5
9.8
2.2
2.8
1.8
22.9
23.2
22.5
% over line
49%
50%
47%
36%
42%
31%
54%
67%
42%
% under line
51%
50%
53%
64%
58%
69%
46%
33%
58%
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
23.6
21.8
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.0
9.5
8.4
3.0
3.2
2.9
24.6
23.3
26.0
vs Weaker (12)
7.9
6.0
9.8
1.8
1.2
2.3
20.1
16.2
24.0
% over line
32%
32%
33%
44%
33%
54%
68%
58%
78%
% under line
68%
68%
67%
56%
67%
46%
32%
42%
22%
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.4%
Under 9.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.7%
Under 3.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.0%
Under 21.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
East Fife or Draw
69.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers East Fife + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Fife or Montrose
71.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers East Fife + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Montrose
59.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
East Fife over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to East Fife, so a minus line means East Fife give that many goals of a start and Montrose receive them. At -1, East Fife must win by two or more to land; a one-goal East Fife win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (East Fife)
East Fife -2
7.6%
Draw -2
12.5%
Montrose +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (East Fife)
East Fife -1
20.1%
Draw -1
20.8%
Montrose +1
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (East Fife)
East Fife +1
69.5%
Draw +1
17.3%
Montrose -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (East Fife)
East Fife +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
Montrose -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
East Fife
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.92
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
East Fife
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.62
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.67
1.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.24
0.80
1.00
0.55
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (East Fife) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Fife over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Fife over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
East Fife and Montrose have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and Montrose have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
East Fife and Montrose have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
East Fife and Montrose have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South