East Kilbride are favoured to win, with a 56% chance of triumph, a 24% draw probability and a 21% chance for A United. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance. East Kilbride, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have been scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding 1.5. A United, on the road to a comparable side, average 0.85 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home +2 handicap (91.6%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.3%) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.9%). East Kilbride’s recent form shows a 2-straight-defeat slump after a 0-4 loss to Ross County, while A United come off a 0-0 draw with East Fife.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Kilbride win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United win
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.73
1.40
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
2.09
2.25
1.50
1.86
2.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.26
2.91
1.36
1.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.25
1.31
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.15
1.46
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.6%
East Kilbride goals ↓
Airdrie United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.5%
11%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.6%
6.5%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.8%
3.2%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Kilbride goals (down), columns = Airdrie United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
East Kilbride and Airdrie United are level in average points per game (both 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
East Kilbride and Airdrie United are level in goals scored per game (both 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
East Kilbride and Airdrie United are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
East Kilbride
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.0
3.9
4.1
26.4
24.7
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.5
8.2
10.8
2.2
2.9
1.8
24.6
23.8
25.5
vs Weaker (31)
10.6
11.0
10.3
5.1
4.4
6.1
27.0
24.9
29.0
% over line
58%
56%
61%
60%
58%
62%
81%
78%
83%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
40%
42%
38%
19%
22%
17%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
10%
12%
8%
12%
0%
25%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
90%
88%
92%
88%
100%
75%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 3.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.4%
Under 21.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
East Kilbride or Draw
79.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
21%
covers East Kilbride + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride or Airdrie United
76.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
21%
covers East Kilbride + Airdrie United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Airdrie United
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
21%
covers Draw + Airdrie United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 3.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to East Kilbride, so a minus line means East Kilbride give that many goals of a start and Airdrie United receive them. At -1, East Kilbride must win by two or more to land; a one-goal East Kilbride win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride -2
16.4%
Draw -2
17.2%
Airdrie United +2
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride -1
33.6%
Draw -1
22.0%
Airdrie United +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride +1
79.2%
Draw +1
12.4%
Airdrie United -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride +2
91.6%
Draw +2
5.8%
Airdrie United -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.47
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.63
1.73
0.55
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
1.50
0.75
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.18
0.82
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.94
0.75
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South