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East Kilbride vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
Vs
47%
22%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

East Kilbride win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.1%
Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 3.93
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.10
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L42W41W26L13L10W31W32W50W22DH·ST 12/07A·RAI15/07A·ELG19/07H·INV22/07H·SPA02/08A·ELG09/08H·STR16/08A·STI23/08H·FOR30/08A·EDI13/09
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.002.351.902.402.142.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.503.000.753.252.252.75
vs Weaker (9)2.441.782.671.832.001.67
Clean sheet %18% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W04L04L10W21W21W11D43W12L32WH·STI15/07H·DUN19/07A·HEA23/07A·HAM26/07H·CLY02/08A·SPA09/08H·ELG16/08A·ANN23/08H·EDI30/08A·FOR13/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.801.131.801.871.80
vs Stronger (21)1.331.810.902.001.731.64
vs Similar (9)1.891.781.601.402.252.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%06%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
74.8%
@ 1.48+12.7%
Under 2.5
25.2%
@ 2.43-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.9%
No
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
3-1
5.9%
3-2
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
2-3
4.2%
East Kilbride goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
02.8%2.8%3.1%1.8%0.8%
13.6%8.3%6.6%3.9%1.7%
24.7%8.2%7.2%4.2%1.8%
33.4%5.9%5.1%3.0%1.3%
41.8%3.2%2.8%1.6%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Kilbride goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
East Kilbride is 0.81 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
East Kilbride is 0.83 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
East Kilbride is 0.42 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

For 6.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

16063643981106569101291611A·EDIH·FORA·STIH·STRA·ELGH·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

1006423423373210563105A·EDIH·FORA·STIH·STRA·ELGH·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

3601320171013817615211412332721233626A·EDIH·FORA·STIH·STRA·ELGH·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 5.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

18062124971191113554618548313181014101099A·FORH·EDIA·ANNH·ELGA·SPAH·CLYA·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80212412344123352324113637558562A·FORH·EDIA·ANNH·ELGA·SPAH·CLYA·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

3401471691551717148101311910911154721252034222320192611A·FORH·EDIA·ANNH·ELGA·SPAH·CLYA·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (17)11.210.012.32.31.33.727.725.330.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (8)13.511.016.01.91.22.531.026.036.0
vs Weaker (9)10.09.510.52.71.35.326.025.027.0
% over line67%67%67%29%20%43%83%100%67%
% under line33%33%33%71%80%57%17%0%33%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.011.710.43.23.13.419.919.820.0
vs Stronger (37)10.912.39.43.02.83.219.918.920.9
vs Similar (13)11.410.012.84.03.94.220.022.217.8
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line55%67%43%42%38%46%31%38%24%
% under line45%33%57%58%62%54%69%62%76%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.2
Dumbarton
10.8
Stirling
10.3
Clyde
9.9
Elgin
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.7
Forfar
9.2
Stranraer
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Edinburgh City
9.1

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
6.5
Elgin
4.9
Edinburgh City
4.9
Forfar
4.8
Stirling
4.5
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.1
Spartans
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.7
Forfar
25.2
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
24.2
Clyde
22.9
Stirling
21.8
Spartans
21.7
Stranraer
20.5
Annan Athletic
20.3
Dumbarton
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.0%
Under 3.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D21W11D13L00D10W31W30W21WH·ST 12/07A·RAI15/07A·ELG19/07H·INV22/07H·SPA02/08A·ELG09/08H·STR16/08A·STI23/08H·FOR30/08A·EDI13/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.061.241.001.101.141.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.501.750.501.750.501.75
vs Weaker (9)1.560.781.330.672.001.00
Clean sheet %41% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L10W21W20W01L20W02L12LH·STI15/07H·DUN19/07A·HEA23/07A·HAM26/07H·CLY02/08A·SPA09/08H·ELG16/08A·ANN23/08H·EDI30/08A·FOR13/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.471.070.870.73
vs Stronger (21)0.670.860.401.000.910.73
vs Similar (9)0.671.000.601.200.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L42W20W15L00D10W21W01L20W01LH·ST 12/07A·RAI15/07A·ELG19/07H·INV22/07H·SPA02/08A·ELG09/08H·STR16/08A·STI23/08H·FOR30/08A·EDI13/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.941.120.901.301.000.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.001.250.251.501.751.00
vs Weaker (9)0.891.001.331.170.000.67
Clean sheet %41% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L02L00D00D01L10W23L10W20WH·STI15/07H·DUN19/07A·HEA23/07A·HAM26/07H·CLY02/08A·SPA09/08H·ELG16/08A·ANN23/08H·EDI30/08A·FOR13/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.900.670.731.001.07
vs Stronger (21)0.670.950.501.000.820.91
vs Similar (9)1.220.781.000.201.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards84.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls78.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.574.8%1.48-----+12.7%✗ Miss
BTTS Yes73.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
East Kilbride and Dumbarton have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
East Kilbride and Dumbarton have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
East Kilbride and Dumbarton have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
EK wins
1
Draws
0
DUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

East Kilbride vs Dumbarton · H/A from EK
DateH/AGameScore
13/07/24ADumbarton Vs EK1-1

East KilbrideEast Kilbride

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25AEdinburgh City Vs EK2-2
30/08/25HEK Vs Forfar5-0
23/08/25AStirling Vs EK2-3
16/08/25HEK Vs Stranraer3-1
09/08/25AElgin Vs EK0-1
02/08/25HEK Vs Spartans1-3
22/07/25HEK Vs Inverness CT2-6
19/07/25AElgin Vs EK1-4
15/07/25ARaith Rovers Vs EK2-4
12/07/25HEK Vs ST Johnstone1-3

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25AForfar Vs DUM2-3
30/08/25HDUM Vs Edinburgh City1-2
23/08/25AAnnan Athletic Vs DUM3-4
16/08/25HDUM Vs Elgin1-1
09/08/25ASpartans Vs DUM1-2
02/08/25HDUM Vs Clyde2-1
26/07/25AHamilton Academical Vs DUM0-1
23/07/25AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUM4-0
19/07/25HDUM Vs Dunfermline0-4
15/07/25HDUM Vs Stirling1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

East Kilbride
East Kilbride
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.53
HomeLLLWW1.20
AwayWWWWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%40%57%
AVG goals4.354.304.43
Over 1.5 %94%100%86%
Over 2.5 %82%90%71%
Over 3.5 %82%90%71%
Scored2.001.902.14
Conceded2.352.402.29
BTTS71%70%71%
Clean Sheet18%20%14%
Corners11.1710.0012.33
Cards6.504.338.67
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.14
HomeWLWDL1.04
AwayLWWWW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%27%33%
AVG goals3.483.503.46
Over 1.5 %90%85%96%
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Over 3.5 %50%54%46%
Scored1.461.421.50
Conceded2.022.081.96
BTTS70%73%67%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners11.0211.6710.38
Cards3.863.813.90

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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