East Kilbride are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 71 % chance of a home win. The team’s recent form, though punctuated by a loss to Montrose, shows a solid 2.25 goals per game at home against similarly matched opponents, while conceding 1.5. Peterhead, on the road, averages just 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against comparable sides, and their last five games include a defeat to Cove Rangers. This disparity explains the model’s confidence in a home victory.
The expected total is 3.8 goals, with the most probable scoreline 2-1, a 9 % chance. The probability spread is 71 % home win, 17 % draw, 12 % away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 7.5 (96.1 %), Home +2 handicap (95.5 %), Home over 0.5 goals (93.2 %), Under 6.5 (91.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.3 %), Over 1.5 (89.7 %), and Home or Draw (87.7 %). Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the model’s view that East Kilbride’s home advantage and Peterhead’s weaker away form will likely produce a 2-1 result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Kilbride win
69.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Peterhead win
12.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.73
1.40
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
2.09
2.25
1.50
1.86
2.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.26
2.91
1.36
1.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.52
1.25
1.50
1.08
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.4%
Under 2.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.6%
Under 3.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.7%
3-0
7.4%
1-0
5.8%
4-1
5.3%
2-2
4.9%
East Kilbride goals ↓
Peterhead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.8%
7.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
2
8.5%
9.2%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.4%
8.0%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
4
4.9%
5.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = East Kilbride goals (down), columns = Peterhead goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
East Kilbride is 0.08 points better than Peterhead in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
East Kilbride is 0.02 goals better than Peterhead in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
East Kilbride is 0.33 goals better than Peterhead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
East Kilbride
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.0
3.9
4.1
26.4
24.7
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.5
8.2
10.8
2.3
3.3
1.8
24.6
23.8
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
10.6
11.0
10.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
27.0
24.9
29.0
% over line
58%
56%
61%
60%
58%
62%
81%
78%
83%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
40%
42%
38%
19%
22%
17%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
27.8
27.9
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.5
3.5
3.5
26.9
26.5
27.2
vs Weaker (11)
7.0
5.5
8.5
4.1
5.0
3.3
31.2
33.2
29.2
% over line
43%
42%
44%
56%
60%
52%
86%
95%
78%
% under line
57%
58%
56%
44%
40%
48%
14%
5%
22%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.0%
Under 3.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.4%
Under 21.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
East Kilbride or Draw
87.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
13%
covers East Kilbride + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride or Peterhead
82.3%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
13%
covers East Kilbride + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Peterhead
30.4%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
13%
covers Draw + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 3.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to East Kilbride, so a minus line means East Kilbride give that many goals of a start and Peterhead receive them. At -1, East Kilbride must win by two or more to land; a one-goal East Kilbride win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride -2
29.3%
Draw -2
19.9%
Peterhead +2
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride -1
49.2%
Draw -1
20.4%
Peterhead +1
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride +1
87.3%
Draw +1
8.0%
Peterhead -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (East Kilbride)
East Kilbride +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.4%
Peterhead -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.47
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.63
1.73
0.55
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
Under 0.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.0%
Under 1.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
1.50
0.75
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.18
0.82
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.6%
Under 0.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.3%
Under 1.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.9%
Under 2.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
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Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South