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Eastleigh vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 22/02/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 1-1
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: J Durkin
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Eastleigh win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.34
Edge
+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.24
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 43.8% · @ 2.11
Edge
-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W32W04L03L01L01L22D00D01L02LH·TOR28/12H·WEY02/01A·HAL08/01A·STO18/01A·DOV25/01H·CHE29/01A·MAI05/02H·YEO12/02A·WEY15/02A·NOT19/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.471.501.210.501.69
vs Stronger (16)0.811.381.291.000.441.67
vs Similar (14)1.141.571.711.430.571.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L11D10W21W21W11D10W21W20W32WA·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02A·WOK12/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.501.360.881.31
vs Stronger (13)0.851.621.291.430.331.83
vs Similar (15)1.401.001.671.001.221.00
vs Weaker (2)1.502.002.003.001.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.5%
@ 2.20+0.1%
Under 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.62-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%
1-0
11.1%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.0%
Eastleigh goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
011%8.3%5.0%1.7%0.5%
111%14%6.7%2.3%0.6%
28.3%8.6%4.5%1.6%0.4%
33.7%3.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eastleigh goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Eastleigh is 0.27 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Eastleigh is 0.16 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.02).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Eastleigh is 0.30 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

EastleighEastleigh

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L02L00D00D01L00D00D02LH·TOR28/12H·WEY02/01A·HAL08/01A·STO18/01A·DOV25/01H·CHE29/01A·MAI05/02H·YEO12/02A·WEY15/02A·NOT19/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.790.500.060.81
vs Stronger (16)0.250.810.570.570.001.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.501.000.430.140.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W10W01L01L00D21W00D20WA·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02A·WOK12/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.710.570.500.38
vs Stronger (13)0.460.540.710.710.170.33
vs Similar (15)0.730.330.670.330.780.33
vs Weaker (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

EastleighEastleigh

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D03L01L01L01L21W00D01L00DH·TOR28/12H·WEY02/01A·HAL08/01A·STO18/01A·DOV25/01H·CHE29/01A·MAI05/02H·YEO12/02A·WEY15/02A·NOT19/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.710.710.440.88
vs Stronger (16)0.560.560.710.430.440.67
vs Similar (14)0.571.070.711.000.431.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D00D11D20W10W10W00D20W12LA·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02A·WOK12/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.790.790.380.94
vs Stronger (13)0.381.080.570.710.171.50
vs Similar (15)0.670.671.000.670.440.67
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards78.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards76.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Eastleigh and Southend have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Eastleigh and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Eastleigh and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Eastleigh and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
EAS wins
0
Draws
1
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Eastleigh vs Southend · H/A from EAS
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/21ASouthend Vs EAS1-0

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/02/22ANotts County Vs EAS2-0
15/02/22AWeymouth Vs EAS1-0
12/02/22HEAS Vs Yeovil0-0
05/02/22AMaidenhead Vs EAS2-2
29/01/22HEAS Vs Chesterfield0-1
25/01/22ADover Athletic Vs EAS1-0
18/01/22AStockport Vs EAS3-0
08/01/22AHalifax Vs EAS4-0
02/01/22HEAS Vs Weymouth3-2
28/12/21HEAS Vs Torquay2-1

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/02/22AWoking Vs SOU2-3
08/02/22HSOU Vs Bromley2-0
01/02/22HSOU Vs Barnet2-1
29/01/22ADover Athletic Vs SOU0-1
25/01/22AAldershot Vs SOU1-1
21/01/22HSOU Vs King’s Lynn2-1
11/01/22HSOU Vs Yeovil2-1
08/01/22AWeymouth Vs SOU0-1
26/12/21ABromley Vs SOU1-1
11/12/21ANotts County Vs SOU4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Eastleigh
Eastleigh
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.30
HomeDWWLD1.91
AwayLLDLL0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%57%19%
AVG goals2.182.222.15
Over 1.5 %60%57%63%
Over 2.5 %40%39%41%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored0.961.350.63
Conceded1.220.871.52
BTTS34%35%33%
Clean Sheet32%48%19%
Corners---
Cards3.663.913.44
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.26
HomeDWWWW1.22
AwayDWDWW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%30%33%
AVG goals2.082.172.00
Over 1.5 %58%65%52%
Over 2.5 %34%39%30%
Over 3.5 %20%22%19%
Scored0.880.960.81
Conceded1.201.221.19
BTTS42%43%41%
Clean Sheet30%26%33%
Corners9.1310.098.25
Cards3.543.263.78

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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