Edinburgh City vs Annan Athletic Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win for Annan Athletic, with a 42% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% probability. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded. Annan Athletic, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The match’s shape points to a tight contest, with both sides capable of finding the net while conceding a comparable number of goals. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 85%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.8%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.4%, Under 10.5 corners at 72.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.2% (miss), and Under 3.5 goals at 70.9%. Edinburgh City’s recent draw against Forfar and Annan Athletic’s win over Dumbarton set the stage for a competitive encounter.

The upset came early as Edinburgh City edged a 2-1 win, overturning the model’s favourite, an away victory that had a 42% probability. The prediction was wrong, but the match lived up to the model’s other selections. Under 25.5 fouls hit at 85%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.8%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.4%, Under 10.5 corners at 72.9%, and Under 3.5 goals at 70.9% all proved correct. Over 2.5 cards, with a 72.2% chance, missed. Edinburgh’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Annan’s win-heavy run both added intrigue, yet the home side ultimately prevailed.