Edinburgh City’s recent 1-1 draw against Forfar suggests a cautious start, yet the model projects a high-scoring encounter with an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% chance. The odds favour a home win at 41%, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 34%, making the home side the clear favourite. Edinburgh’s home form shows they score and concede 1.2 goals against similar opposition, while Annan Athletic, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 91.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 85.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 71.5%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.4%. The model’s selection also highlights Under 23.5 fouls at 83.4%, Under 21.5 fouls at 70.5%, and Under 8.5 corners at 70.4%.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City’s recent run of DWWDL, now coming off a 1-1 draw with Forfar, set the stage for a hard-fought home win. The model predicted a 3-2 victory for the Scots, a call that proved correct. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 41% probability and was vindicated. The model’s selections delivered a mixed bag: Under 25.5 fouls (91.8%) missed, Over 1.5 (85.5%) hit, Under 23.5 fouls (83.4%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (83.0%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (71.5%) hit, Under 21.5 fouls (70.5%) missed, and Over 8.5 corners (70.4%) missed. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the home side’s triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
41.3%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 2.99
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.55
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 43.2% · @ 2.13
Edge
-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.70
1.07
1.73
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (17)
1.06
1.76
1.00
2.00
1.12
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.73
1.20
1.20
1.00
2.17
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.47
2.19
1.06
1.21
1.93
vs Stronger (19)
1.84
1.32
2.44
0.78
1.30
1.80
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.90
2.17
1.67
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.7%
@ 1.58+5.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
@ 2.27-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.7%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.3%
11%
7.8%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.2%
5.1%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Edinburgh City is 0.69 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (0.39 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.47 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Edinburgh City is 0.83 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.72 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 4.5 · Against 7.8 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 3.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.8 · Against 11.9 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.6
3.2
3.3
3.1
19.4
19.8
19.0
vs Stronger (26)
9.0
8.4
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.4
19.0
19.1
18.9
vs Similar (19)
10.7
11.7
9.9
3.1
3.4
2.8
19.5
20.6
18.5
vs Weaker (5)
8.8
9.5
8.3
2.8
2.5
3.0
20.8
20.5
21.0
% over line
58%
56%
60%
38%
36%
40%
30%
32%
28%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
62%
64%
60%
70%
68%
72%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
4.1
4.3
3.9
20.3
21.8
18.7
vs Stronger (26)
8.3
8.3
8.2
3.8
3.9
3.6
19.8
20.5
19.1
vs Similar (20)
10.8
10.6
10.9
4.5
4.8
4.3
21.3
23.9
18.7
vs Weaker (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
4.0
4.5
3.5
18.0
20.0
16.0
% over line
46%
44%
48%
60%
68%
52%
44%
56%
32%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
40%
32%
48%
56%
44%
68%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Montrose
10.7
Hamilton
10.7
Kelty Hearts
10.4
Falkirk
9.9
Alloa
9.9
Queen of Sth
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.6
Stirling
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.2
Hamilton
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Falkirk
4.0
Montrose
4.0
Cove Rangers
3.8
Queen of Sth
3.8
Kelty Hearts
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.2
Alloa
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.7
Falkirk
22.0
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Hamilton
22.0
Stirling
21.2
Queen of Sth
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.3
Cove Rangers
19.9
Edinburgh City
19.4
Alloa
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.3%
Under 9.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.6%
Under 3.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.5%
Under 21.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
0.82
0.44
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.88
0.75
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
0.68
0.67
0.78
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.90
1.33
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.53
0.87
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
0.94
0.56
1.33
1.12
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
0.20
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.31
0.31
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (19)
1.32
0.63
1.78
0.00
0.90
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Kelty Hearts
Stirling