Edinburgh City’s recent form shows a cautious approach, scoring an average of two goals at home while conceding 2.5, whereas Annan Athletic, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and 2 conceded against similar opposition. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. The favourite result is an away win, with probabilities of 30% for a home victory, 24% for a draw, and 46% for an away triumph. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 87.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 86.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.9%, Under 23.5 fouls at 76.9%, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.8%. The match is expected to see both sides contribute to the goal tally, with Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton hinting at a stronger away performance.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-2 in favour of Annan Athletic, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win with a 46% probability. Edinburgh City’s recent form, a draw in their last game, was less convincing than Annan’s win-driven run, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 25.5 fouls (87.6%) missed, Over 1.5 (86.3%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (78.9%) hit, Under 23.5 fouls (76.9%) missed, and Over 2.5 cards (75.8%) hit. The most likely score of 1-1 (10.5%) and 1-2 (9.0%) were close to the actual 1-2 outcome, while the predicted total of 3 goals (22%) was slightly above the 3-goal tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 5.95
Edge
+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 5.05
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.39
Edge
-20.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.80
1.36
2.57
0.94
3.00
vs Stronger (25)
1.12
2.76
1.25
2.58
1.00
2.92
vs Similar (5)
1.20
3.00
2.00
2.50
0.67
3.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.80
1.88
1.75
1.21
1.86
vs Stronger (24)
1.38
1.96
1.58
2.08
1.17
1.83
vs Similar (6)
2.33
1.17
2.75
0.75
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.0%
@ 1.37-1.9%
Under 2.5
34.0%
@ 2.90+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
1-3
5.7%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
4.3%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
5.4%
6.0%
3.8%
1.8%
1
4.1%
10%
9.0%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.2%
6.8%
4.3%
2.0%
3
1.9%
3.6%
3.4%
2.2%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Edinburgh City is 0.69 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (0.39 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.47 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Edinburgh City is 0.83 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.72 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 3.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 5.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.5
9.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Stronger (34)
10.0
10.4
9.6
3.8
3.6
3.9
21.0
20.7
21.2
vs Similar (14)
9.9
10.5
9.5
3.1
3.2
3.1
18.3
19.2
17.6
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
13.0
8.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
15.5
14.0
17.0
% over line
60%
67%
54%
42%
42%
42%
34%
29%
38%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
58%
58%
58%
66%
71%
62%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.5
9.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
20.5
20.5
20.5
vs Stronger (36)
9.2
9.4
8.9
4.5
4.7
4.4
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (13)
11.4
12.9
9.7
4.8
4.3
5.3
21.2
20.6
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
50%
54%
46%
66%
65%
67%
38%
46%
29%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
34%
35%
33%
62%
54%
71%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.3
Hamilton
10.6
Falkirk
10.5
Stirling
10.2
Montrose
10.1
Edinburgh City
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.9
Queen of Sth
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Alloa
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Montrose
4.3
Falkirk
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Queen of Sth
3.7
Hamilton
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Alloa
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kelty Hearts
21.8
Falkirk
21.6
Montrose
21.5
Hamilton
20.6
Queen of Sth
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.5
Stirling
20.1
Edinburgh City
20.0
Alloa
18.9
Cove Rangers
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.7%
Under 9.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.9%
Under 21.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.79
1.21
0.38
1.31
vs Stronger (25)
0.48
1.28
0.67
1.17
0.31
1.38
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.20
1.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.00
1.12
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
0.96
1.00
1.25
0.42
0.67
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.53
0.57
1.36
0.56
1.69
vs Stronger (25)
0.64
1.48
0.58
1.42
0.69
1.54
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.80
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.88
0.62
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
1.00
0.58
0.83
0.75
1.17
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.17
1.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Kelty Hearts
Stirling