Edinburgh City are tipped to win, with a 44% chance of taking the points, 29% for a draw and 27% for Annan Athletic to triumph. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.7% probability. Edinburgh City average 1.67 goals scored and conceded at home against similarly matched opposition, while Annan Athletic average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded on the road against similar teams. The suggested selections are: Over 2.5 cards88.5%, Over 19.5 fouls79.9%, Under 11.5 corners76.1%, Over 3.5 cards75.1%, Under 3.575.0%, and Over 1.573.2%. Edinburgh City have just returned from a 1-1 draw with Forfar, whereas Annan Athletic come off a 2-0 win over Dumbarton.
Results analysis
The 2-2 draw stunned Edinburgh City, the pre-match favourite that the model had tipped to win with a 44% chance. The prediction was wrong, as the match finished level. Edinburgh’s recent form, a draw after a string of mixed results, was eclipsed by Annan Athletic’s win-heavy run, yet neither side could secure victory. The model’s selections largely proved accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 79.9%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 76.1%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 75.1%, Over 1.5 hit at 73.2%, while Under 3.5 missed at 75.0%. The expected total of 2.5 goals was close to the actual tally of four.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.37
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.22
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.62
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.60
1.73
1.33
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (17)
1.41
2.12
2.11
1.44
0.62
2.88
vs Similar (6)
1.67
1.17
1.67
1.67
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.37
1.47
2.40
1.13
2.33
vs Stronger (23)
1.26
2.70
1.58
2.67
0.91
2.73
vs Similar (7)
1.43
1.29
1.00
1.33
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.82-4.1%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.86+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.8%
2-2 ✓
4.9%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.4%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.0%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.06 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Edinburgh City is 0.06 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Edinburgh City is 0.39 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 3.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 5.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.6
4.0
4.2
3.7
24.5
25.4
23.6
vs Stronger (29)
9.2
10.1
8.4
3.9
4.3
3.5
23.7
24.8
22.6
vs Similar (10)
9.4
9.2
9.8
5.0
5.3
4.5
25.8
26.2
25.2
vs Weaker (11)
8.6
9.2
8.0
3.3
3.0
3.6
25.1
26.0
24.4
% over line
40%
50%
30%
64%
68%
60%
72%
80%
65%
% under line
60%
50%
70%
36%
32%
40%
28%
20%
35%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.5
3.0
2.7
3.4
20.2
20.7
19.8
vs Stronger (38)
9.5
9.2
9.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
19.6
21.3
17.6
vs Similar (12)
10.0
12.2
8.7
3.6
2.0
4.7
22.0
18.2
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
52%
44%
33%
54%
39%
55%
24%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
56%
67%
46%
61%
45%
76%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
13.5
Dumbarton
10.8
Stirling
10.2
Annan Athletic
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Forfar
9.6
Elgin
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Stranraer
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
7.5
Elgin
4.7
Edinburgh City
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Stirling
4.4
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.6
Dumbarton
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
31.0
Forfar
24.8
Elgin
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.9
Clyde
22.6
Spartans
22.3
Stirling
21.7
Stranraer
20.1
Annan Athletic
20.0
Dumbarton
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.71
0.89
0.67
0.12
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.14
0.33
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.23
0.20
1.20
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
1.43
0.25
1.33
0.45
1.55
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
1.00
0.73
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.41
1.22
0.78
0.50
2.12
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.27
1.20
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
1.26
1.33
1.33
0.45
1.18
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.71
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →