The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win, a 40% chance for Annan Athletic, 33% for Edinburgh City and 27% for a draw. The expected goal tally is 3.0, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Annan Athletic, on the road, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 89.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.9%, and Over 3.5 cards at 76.7%. Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap with the match-result chances. The recent form shows Edinburgh City coming off a draw, while Annan Athletic arrive after a win, adding another layer of uncertainty to this tightly contested fixture.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City’s recent draw streak was broken as the match finished 2-2, a result that surprised everyone. The pre-match favourite was the away side, predicted to win with a 40% chance, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 2.5 cards hit, as did its picks for Over 1.5 goals and Over 19.5 fouls, all with probabilities of 89.4%, 81.0% and 76.9% respectively. Its suggestion for Over 3.5 cards missed, coming in at 76.7%. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely 1-1, 1-2 or 2-1 outcomes, but the draw was the only outcome that materialised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.53
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.58
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.28
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.27
2.07
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
2.46
1.33
2.00
1.14
2.86
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.60
1.50
2.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.86
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.27
2.00
2.20
0.87
2.33
vs Stronger (15)
1.60
2.73
2.38
2.12
0.71
3.43
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.60
1.80
1.60
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
2.20
1.00
4.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.48-4.7%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.42+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
2-2 ✓
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.9%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.0%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.06 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Edinburgh City is 0.06 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Edinburgh City is 0.39 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 3.6 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 5.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.5
4.4
4.6
23.8
24.7
23.0
vs Stronger (25)
9.3
9.2
9.3
4.4
4.2
4.7
24.5
25.1
23.8
vs Similar (14)
8.9
8.4
9.4
5.0
5.0
5.0
23.6
24.0
23.3
vs Weaker (11)
9.9
11.5
8.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
22.9
24.8
21.7
% over line
47%
48%
45%
70%
68%
72%
67%
71%
64%
% under line
53%
52%
55%
30%
32%
28%
33%
29%
36%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.4
10.2
3.2
2.6
3.7
21.1
21.1
21.0
vs Stronger (30)
9.6
9.1
10.2
3.0
2.9
3.1
20.1
21.2
18.8
vs Similar (15)
9.0
9.1
8.9
3.7
2.1
5.4
22.9
21.0
24.7
vs Weaker (5)
13.8
12.5
15.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
20.8
21.5
20.0
% over line
55%
50%
60%
48%
36%
60%
48%
55%
40%
% under line
45%
50%
40%
52%
64%
40%
52%
45%
60%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.6
Stirling
11.0
Dumbarton
10.6
Stranraer
10.2
Elgin
10.2
Annan Athletic
9.7
Clyde
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.2
Spartans
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.9
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Clyde
4.6
Stirling
4.4
Stranraer
4.4
Spartans
4.3
Annan Athletic
3.9
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.5
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.0
Elgin
23.6
Clyde
22.6
Stranraer
21.8
Stirling
21.6
Spartans
21.2
Annan Athletic
21.2
Dumbarton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.7%
Under 3.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.0%
Under 21.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.80
1.07
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.20
0.75
1.00
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
3.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.00
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.38
0.33
0.67
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.00
0.83
1.17
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
1.40
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
1.53
1.62
1.12
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.90
1.60
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Elgin
Dumbarton
Stirling