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Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 5-0
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Vs
41%
26%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Edinburgh City a 41% win probability against Dumbarton in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-05-02, with 26% for the draw and 34% for Dumbarton. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Edinburgh City finished 5-0 against Dumbarton (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 26% draw and 34% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 5.75
Edge
+25.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.66
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.37
Edge
-31.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D41W03L03L01L03L02L04L04LA·ELG24/02H·FOR28/02H·STR07/03A·ANN14/03H·ELG21/03A·STI28/03H·SPA04/04H·CLY11/04A·EAS18/04A·FOR25/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.131.202.400.731.87
vs Stronger (11)0.552.180.672.670.401.60
vs Similar (10)0.901.801.001.750.831.83
vs Weaker (9)1.562.442.002.601.002.25
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W20W11D21W22D11D21W02L01LA·STI28/02H·SPA07/03H·STR10/03A·ELG14/03H·ANN21/03H·FOR28/03A·STR04/04H·STI11/04A·CLY18/04H·EAS25/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.601.471.331.001.87
vs Stronger (15)1.271.531.621.120.862.00
vs Similar (15)1.201.671.291.571.121.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.50+0.4%
Under 2.5
38.3%
@ 2.37-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
5.2%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
05.2%5.2%4.7%2.4%0.9%
15.9%12%7.9%4.0%1.5%
25.8%8.8%6.6%3.3%1.3%
33.3%4.9%3.7%1.9%0.7%
41.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.03 points worse than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Edinburgh City is 0.06 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Edinburgh City is 0.31 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

160281235511673322452446101281613649610A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

804221223142442313220634468544A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

31013815913841010101215208818815151621242114202728262331A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1603213106186263763104784541698913131112H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50222123212112221314352122434H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 8.2 · Total 18.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

270131410611111261291589575598927162218212314121417H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.19.35.15.05.123.924.723.2
vs Stronger (20)9.69.19.95.55.75.524.625.224.0
vs Similar (16)8.87.99.84.64.84.523.924.423.4
vs Weaker (14)9.210.67.94.94.65.322.924.321.6
% over line46%38%54%80%79%81%68%71%65%
% under line54%62%46%20%21%19%32%29%35%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.511.09.93.54.02.920.420.720.2
vs Stronger (34)10.410.610.23.74.33.120.920.920.9
vs Similar (16)10.612.09.23.13.52.619.420.218.6
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line52%58%46%44%58%29%40%46%33%
% under line48%42%54%56%42%71%60%54%67%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Dumbarton
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.7
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.1
Annan Athletic
22.0
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.2%
Under 21.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton · H/A from EC
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26ADumbarton Vs EC1-2
06/12/25HEC Vs Dumbarton4-3
30/08/25ADumbarton Vs EC1-2

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AForfar Vs EC4-0
18/04/26AEast Kilbride Vs EC4-0
11/04/26HEC Vs Clyde0-2
04/04/26HEC Vs Spartans0-3
28/03/26AStirling Vs EC1-0
21/03/26HEC Vs Elgin0-3
14/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs EC3-0
07/03/26HEC Vs Stranraer4-1
28/02/26HEC Vs Forfar0-0
24/02/26AElgin Vs EC3-0

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HDUM Vs East Kilbride0-1
18/04/26AClyde Vs DUM2-0
11/04/26HDUM Vs Stirling2-1
04/04/26AStranraer Vs DUM1-1
28/03/26HDUM Vs Forfar2-2
21/03/26HDUM Vs Annan Athletic2-1
14/03/26AElgin Vs DUM1-1
10/03/26HDUM Vs Stranraer2-0
07/03/26HDUM Vs Spartans3-0
28/02/26AStirling Vs DUM1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.22
HomeDWLLL1.12
AwayLLLLL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%29%38%
AVG goals3.163.582.77
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %64%71%58%
Over 3.5 %40%54%27%
Scored1.301.621.00
Conceded1.861.961.77
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners9.229.129.31
Cards5.085.045.12
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.06
HomeWWDWL1.15
AwayLDDDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals3.042.813.29
Over 1.5 %90%85%96%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.421.351.50
Conceded1.621.461.79
BTTS74%73%75%
Clean Sheet12%19%4%
Corners10.4811.049.88
Cards3.504.042.92

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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