Edinburgh City are tipped to win in a match that is expected to see about 3.1 goals. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 54% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of a Dumbarton victory. The most likely total goals is two, with a 23% probability, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% chance. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Dumbarton, on the road, average only 0.33 scored and 1.89 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home +2 handicap (90.9%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.0%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.5%). Edinburgh City are coming off a draw, while Dumbarton are still recovering from three straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.10
1.12
2.19
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.67
0.43
3.00
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.50
1.67
1.17
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
2.17
1.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.33
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.08
1.50
1.17
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.56
1.22
1.22
0.33
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.4%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.5%
11%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.3%
3.7%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.6%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Edinburgh City is 1.00 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Edinburgh City is 1.00 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Edinburgh City is 0.40 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
9.9
3.2
3.2
3.3
23.5
24.1
23.0
vs Stronger (22)
10.2
9.2
11.3
3.0
3.1
2.8
24.5
24.5
24.5
vs Similar (18)
9.0
8.6
9.2
3.4
2.3
4.4
23.6
24.2
23.2
vs Weaker (10)
9.6
10.0
9.0
3.6
5.2
2.5
21.7
23.5
19.3
% over line
56%
40%
71%
50%
46%
54%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
44%
60%
29%
50%
54%
46%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.6
2.1
2.5
1.6
20.2
20.8
19.7
vs Stronger (19)
10.8
12.2
9.2
1.7
2.0
1.2
19.8
19.3
20.4
vs Similar (31)
10.0
10.3
9.7
2.4
2.9
1.8
20.5
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
59%
44%
26%
38%
12%
39%
47%
31%
% under line
48%
41%
56%
74%
62%
88%
61%
53%
69%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.6%
Under 9.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.8%
Under 21.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Edinburgh City or Draw
77.8%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Edinburgh City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City or Dumbarton
75.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Edinburgh City + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dumbarton
46.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
Under
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 3.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Edinburgh City, so a minus line means Edinburgh City give that many goals of a start and Dumbarton receive them. At -1, Edinburgh City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Edinburgh City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Edinburgh City)
Edinburgh City -2
15.1%
Draw -2
16.7%
Dumbarton +2
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Edinburgh City)
Edinburgh City -1
31.8%
Draw -1
21.9%
Dumbarton +1
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Edinburgh City)
Edinburgh City +1
77.8%
Draw +1
13.1%
Dumbarton -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Edinburgh City)
Edinburgh City +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.3%
Dumbarton -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.69
1.00
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.42
0.43
1.86
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.20
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.72
0.44
0.67
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.13
0.44
1.19
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.25
0.00
1.14
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.83
0.78
0.56
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling