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Edinburgh City vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-5
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Vs
39%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Edinburgh City a 39% win probability against Elgin in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-08-01, with 26% for the draw and 35% for Elgin. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Edinburgh City finished 0-5 against Elgin (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 26% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D41W03L03L01L03L02L04L04L50WH·FOR28/02H·STR07/03A·ANN14/03H·ELG21/03A·STI28/03H·SPA04/04H·CLY11/04A·EAS18/04A·FOR25/04H·DUM02/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.072.071.402.270.731.87
vs Stronger (10)0.402.200.402.800.401.60
vs Similar (10)0.901.801.001.750.831.83
vs Weaker (10)1.902.202.502.171.002.25
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D30W20W20W12L03L22D11D01LA·ANN10/03H·DUM14/03A·EDI21/03H·FOR24/03H·CLY28/03A·FOR04/04H·ANN11/04A·STI18/04A·SPA25/04H·STR02/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.531.531.401.331.67
vs Stronger (3)0.334.001.006.000.003.00
vs Similar (4)1.502.002.503.000.501.00
vs Weaker (23)1.571.131.420.751.731.55
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.9%
Under 2.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.7%
2-0
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
05.1%5.3%4.9%2.5%1.0%
15.7%11%8.1%4.2%1.6%
25.5%8.6%6.7%3.4%1.3%
33.0%4.7%3.7%1.9%0.7%
41.3%1.9%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Kelty Hearts
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.14 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.47
Forfar
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Edinburgh City is 0.17 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Kelty Hearts
1.47
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Edinburgh City is 0.47 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

160281235511673322452446101281613649610A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

804221223142442313220634468544A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

31013815913841010101215208818815151621242114202728262331A·FORA·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

130343452464951336733447771013661368A·SPAA·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60321133242212241121215266436233A·SPAA·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

3501419981591718101016915125910916733172435202527141923A·SPAA·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.19.44.94.85.023.824.722.9
vs Stronger (19)9.69.110.15.55.75.324.325.223.4
vs Similar (16)8.87.99.84.64.84.523.924.423.4
vs Weaker (15)9.210.67.94.64.05.322.924.321.6
% over line47%38%56%78%76%80%67%71%64%
% under line53%62%44%22%24%20%33%29%36%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.110.44.24.73.822.721.823.6
vs Stronger (4)11.014.08.06.07.54.525.226.024.5
vs Similar (10)7.97.88.03.43.83.221.820.023.0
vs Weaker (36)10.910.211.64.24.63.922.721.823.6
% over line61%58%64%58%72%44%59%50%68%
% under line39%42%36%42%28%56%41%50%32%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
11.0
Dumbarton
10.5
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.7
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.8%
Under 3.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.0%
Under 21.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Edinburgh City vs Elgin · H/A from EC
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HEC Vs Elgin0-3
24/02/26AElgin Vs EC3-0
08/11/25HEC Vs Elgin1-3
23/08/25AElgin Vs EC2-4
12/04/25HEC Vs Elgin2-0
22/02/25AElgin Vs EC1-2
21/12/24HEC Vs Elgin1-0
28/09/24AElgin Vs EC3-3

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HEC Vs Dumbarton5-0
25/04/26AForfar Vs EC4-0
18/04/26AEast Kilbride Vs EC4-0
11/04/26HEC Vs Clyde0-2
04/04/26HEC Vs Spartans0-3
28/03/26AStirling Vs EC1-0
21/03/26HEC Vs Elgin0-3
14/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs EC3-0
07/03/26HEC Vs Stranraer4-1
28/02/26HEC Vs Forfar0-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HELG Vs Stranraer0-1
25/04/26ASpartans Vs ELG1-1
18/04/26AStirling Vs ELG2-2
11/04/26HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-3
04/04/26AForfar Vs ELG2-1
28/03/26HELG Vs Clyde2-0
24/03/26HELG Vs Forfar2-0
21/03/26AEdinburgh City Vs ELG0-3
14/03/26HELG Vs Dumbarton1-1
10/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.28
HomeWLLLW1.20
AwayLLLLL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%40%
AVG goals3.163.642.68
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %40%56%24%
Scored1.381.761.00
Conceded1.781.881.68
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners9.249.129.36
Cards5.045.045.04
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL1.18
HomeDWWLL1.44
AwayLWLDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.762.842.68
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.301.521.08
Conceded1.461.321.60
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet26%40%12%
Corners10.2910.1210.44
Cards4.314.883.76

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElginElgin37
67%
2.3
102+8
4.0
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.7
-
2ForfarForfar37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.3
-
3ClydeClyde36
67%
2.0
53+2
2.7
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4SpartansSpartans34
33%
1.3
65+1
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
5Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City34
33%
1.3
57-2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.3
-
6Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic33
33%
1.0
46-2
3.3
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
7StirlingStirling33
33%
1.0
46-2
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
8StranraerStranraer33
33%
1.0
24-2
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
9Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts33
33%
1.0
47-3
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.32.3
-
10DumbartonDumbarton33
33%
1.0
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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