Edinburgh City face Forfar with the model favouring an away win, a 44% chance against a 27% home-win and 29% draw. The average goal tally sits at 2.4, with the most likely total of two goals at 27% of outcomes. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14% probability. Edinburgh, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Forfar on the road averages 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 25.5 fouls (84.8%), Under 5.5 cards (83.9%), Under 11.5 corners (80.4%), Under 3.5 (77.0%), Under 23.5 fouls (73.0%), Over 1.5 (71.3%), Under 10.5 corners (70.8%) and Over 2.5 cards (70.3%). All figures are presented as percentages, with each selection listed once.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as Edinburgh City claimed a 2-0 victory, extending their recent run of results after a draw. The model had given the away side a 44% chance of triumph, yet the outcome was a home win. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The suggested picks were largely accurate: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 84.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.4%, Under 3.5 at 77.0%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.0%, Over 1.5 at 71.3%, while Under 10.5 corners missed at 70.8% and Over 2.5 cards missed at 70.3%. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home side’s superiority.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.10
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.31
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.16
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.19
1.50
1.43
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
1.43
1.25
1.62
1.00
1.17
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.33
0.83
1.33
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
1.80
1.07
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
1.40
0.80
1.75
0.62
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.33
1.86
1.57
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.94-4.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.80+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
8.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
6.6%
2-0 ✓
4.8%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
11%
8.5%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.8%
14%
8.9%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.8%
6.6%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Edinburgh City is 0.22 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Edinburgh City is 0.39 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Edinburgh City is 0.36 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 4.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 8.8 · Total 17.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 6.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.6
9.1
3.4
4.0
2.8
20.2
21.0
19.4
vs Stronger (24)
7.9
7.1
8.7
3.1
3.3
2.8
19.4
19.8
19.0
vs Similar (19)
10.1
10.3
9.9
3.8
4.6
2.9
21.3
22.5
20.0
vs Weaker (7)
8.7
9.0
8.5
3.4
4.3
2.8
19.9
20.7
19.2
% over line
41%
36%
46%
40%
48%
32%
37%
44%
29%
% under line
59%
64%
54%
60%
52%
68%
63%
56%
71%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.7
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.4
21.6
23.2
vs Stronger (28)
9.3
8.7
9.9
3.3
2.7
4.0
22.2
21.1
23.5
vs Similar (19)
9.9
10.5
9.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
22.8
21.9
23.5
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
6.0
9.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
21.0
24.0
15.0
% over line
46%
48%
44%
52%
36%
68%
56%
56%
56%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
48%
64%
32%
44%
44%
44%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.4
Forfar
9.4
Albion Rvs
9.3
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Stirling
9.1
Stranraer
9.0
Edinburgh City
8.9
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.8
Stranraer
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.6
Forfar
3.4
Edinburgh City
3.4
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Albion Rvs
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
22.9
Elgin
22.4
Forfar
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stranraer
22.0
Cowdenbeath
22.0
Stenhousemuir
21.6
Albion Rvs
21.5
Edinburgh City
20.2
Kelty Hearts
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.1%
Under 9.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
42.6%
Under 21.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.69
0.88
0.50
0.29
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.17
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.27
0.62
0.38
0.57
0.14
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.73
0.43
1.14
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.50
0.62
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.79
0.50
0.88
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.33
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.27
0.33
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.53
1.12
0.25
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.60
1.43
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Annan Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath