This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.53
1.31
1.50
1.14
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.65
1.43
1.64
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.60-3.8%
Under 2.5
45.5%
@ 2.23+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.2%
1
6.6%
13%
8.8%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.2%
7.9%
5.9%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.5%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Edinburgh City is 0.83 points worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (0.39 vs 1.22).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.28 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.33).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Edinburgh City is 0.97 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (2.72 vs 1.75).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 4.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 3.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.4
3.2
3.3
3.0
19.5
19.8
19.2
vs Stronger (25)
8.4
7.5
9.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
19.2
19.1
19.4
vs Similar (20)
10.6
11.7
9.6
3.0
3.4
2.7
19.5
20.6
18.6
vs Weaker (5)
8.8
9.5
8.3
2.8
2.5
3.0
20.8
20.5
21.0
% over line
54%
52%
56%
36%
36%
36%
30%
32%
28%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
64%
64%
64%
70%
68%
72%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.7
11.0
3.7
3.7
3.7
21.8
21.5
22.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
10.6
10.2
11.1
3.9
3.8
4.1
22.5
22.4
22.6
vs Weaker (12)
9.3
8.0
10.7
3.1
3.5
2.7
19.5
18.3
20.7
% over line
60%
50%
71%
46%
46%
46%
46%
42%
50%
% under line
40%
50%
29%
54%
54%
54%
54%
58%
50%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.0
Montrose
10.7
Kelty Hearts
10.3
Falkirk
10.1
Queen of Sth
9.9
Alloa
9.9
Cove Rangers
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.6
Stirling
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamilton
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Montrose
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.9
Falkirk
3.9
Cove Rangers
3.8
Kelty Hearts
3.7
Queen of Sth
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.2
Alloa
3.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.6
Falkirk
21.9
Kelty Hearts
21.8
Hamilton
21.8
Stirling
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.3
Cove Rangers
19.6
Edinburgh City
19.5
Alloa
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
35.3%
Under 21.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
0.67
1.00
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.31
0.44
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.65
0.36
0.50
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.47
0.73
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.93
0.50
1.25
1.14
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.85
0.33
0.17
0.43
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.00
1.06
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.00
1.07
1.14
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Annan Athletic
Stirling