Edinburgh City and Spartans face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 38% for Edinburgh City, 26% for a draw and 35% for Spartans. The average goal count sits at 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the encounter.
Edinburgh City, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded. Spartans, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. This suggests a defensive battle with both sides capable of scoring.
The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.3% probability of success. No edge percentage is attached.
Results analysis
The match saw Edinburgh City extend their recent form, coming off a draw and finally securing a decisive home win. The model’s favourite, a home win at 38%, proved correct, with the final score of 5-0 confirming the predicted outcome. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.3% probability, also hit, as the game produced five goals. Edinburgh City’s dominant performance matched the model’s expectation, while Spartans struggled away, losing their chance to influence the result. Overall, the model’s predictions aligned closely with the actual events, delivering a clear and accurate forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
38.2%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.59
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.13
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.60
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.73
1.27
2.07
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
2.17
1.11
2.11
1.00
2.22
vs Similar (6)
2.33
0.83
2.33
1.67
2.33
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.33
0.67
2.33
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.07
1.00
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.44
0.62
1.00
1.62
1.88
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.14
1.57
1.00
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
@ 2.09+13.3%
Under 2.5
42.1%
@ 1.68-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.1%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.5%
12%
8.2%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.6%
6.3%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Edinburgh City is 0.11 points better than Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Edinburgh City is 0.17 goals better than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Edinburgh City and Spartans are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 3.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
For 3.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.6 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.3
3.8
4.2
3.3
23.3
23.8
22.9
vs Stronger (34)
9.8
10.4
9.1
3.6
4.1
3.2
22.2
22.4
22.0
vs Similar (10)
9.6
9.2
10.0
4.7
5.2
4.2
25.3
26.6
24.0
vs Weaker (6)
8.4
7.0
9.3
3.2
3.7
2.7
25.8
26.0
25.7
% over line
45%
48%
43%
52%
62%
42%
64%
67%
61%
% under line
55%
52%
57%
48%
38%
58%
36%
33%
39%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.0
8.4
2.9
3.0
2.8
21.7
22.8
20.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
8.6
9.9
7.2
2.6
3.2
2.1
23.2
23.8
22.7
vs Weaker (25)
9.7
10.1
9.4
3.2
2.8
3.7
20.3
21.9
18.8
% over line
47%
52%
41%
38%
40%
36%
49%
57%
41%
% under line
53%
48%
59%
62%
60%
64%
51%
43%
59%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.6
Forfar
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
East Fife
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Clyde
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.2
Elgin
24.7
Forfar
24.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.6
East Fife
22.3
Clyde
22.0
Spartans
22.0
Stirling
21.0
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.78
0.56
0.33
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.17
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.27
0.40
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.50
0.12
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.30
0.87
1.40
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.61
0.78
1.33
0.44
1.89
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.33
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
0.50
0.75
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.57
1.14
0.43
0.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Peterhead
East Fife
Elgin
Stirling
Clyde
Stranraer
Forfar