Egersund’s recent draw streak has been interrupted by a strong home form, scoring 1.42 goals and conceding 1.58 against similar opposition, while hodd, fresh from a win, averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded on the road. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.6 goals, most likely 3 total goals, and the single most probable scoreline 2-1 for the home side, a 9.4% chance. The favoured outcome is a home win, with a 58% chance, a 21% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 96.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.5%, Under 6.5 at 92.7%, Home +2 handicap at 91.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 89.8%, Over 1.5 at 88.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 85.3%, and Under 5.5 at 84.4%. These picks reflect the model’s confidence in a modestly high-scoring, home-favoured match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egersund win
58.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
hodd win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egersund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.62
1.38
1.71
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.38
1.42
1.58
1.58
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.17
1.80
1.73
1.27
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
3.14
1.67
2.00
0.75
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.95
1.83
1.67
1.40
2.30
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.7%
Under 2.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
9.1%
3-1
7.1%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
5.4%
1-0
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
Egersund goals ↓
hodd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
2.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.4%
9.1%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.1%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.4%
7.1%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egersund goals (down), columns = hodd goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Egersund is 0.57 points worse than hodd in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Egersund is 0.71 goals worse than hodd in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Egersund is 1.14 goals better than hodd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Egersund or Draw
79.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Egersund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egersund or hodd
78.7%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Egersund + hodd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or hodd
41.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Draw + hodd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Egersund over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 3.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Egersund, so a minus line means Egersund give that many goals of a start and hodd receive them. At -1, Egersund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Egersund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Egersund)
Egersund -2
19.8%
Draw -2
17.5%
hodd +2
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Egersund)
Egersund -1
37.3%
Draw -1
20.9%
hodd +1
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Egersund)
Egersund +1
79.5%
Draw +1
11.7%
hodd -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Egersund)
Egersund +2
91.2%
Draw +2
5.9%
hodd -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egersund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.91
1.17
0.75
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egersund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.06
0.88
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.67
1.00
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.05
0.67
0.92
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Egersund's squad is €1m more valuable than hodd's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Egersund and hodd have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Egersund and hodd have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Egersund and hodd have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss