Egersund’s home form shows a modest 1.58 goals scored and 1.75 conceded against similar opposition, while Kongsvinger’s away attack averages 2.2 goals and 1.5 conceded. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4 % chance. The model’s pick is an away win, with probabilities of 28 % for a home victory, 24 % for a draw, and 48 % for Kongsvinger to triumph. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (94.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Under 5.5 (87.1 %), Away +2 handicap (87.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (86.7 %), Over 1.5 (86.2 %), and Away over 0.5 goals (85.7 %). Egersund are coming off a 0-4 loss to Stabaek, whereas Kongsvinger are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Haugesund.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egersund win
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egersund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.62
1.38
1.71
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.38
1.42
1.58
1.58
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.57
2.20
1.93
2.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.90
2.08
2.25
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
0.78
2.67
0.67
3.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
6.0%
0-0
4.7%
Egersund goals ↓
Kongsvinger goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.2%
6.9%
4.4%
2.1%
1
4.2%
11%
9.4%
6.0%
2.9%
2
3.5%
6.7%
6.4%
4.1%
2.0%
3
1.6%
3.1%
2.9%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egersund goals (down), columns = Kongsvinger goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Egersund is 0.60 points worse than Kongsvinger in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Egersund is 1.12 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Egersund is 0.12 goals better than Kongsvinger in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Egersund or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Egersund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egersund or Kongsvinger
75.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Egersund + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kongsvinger
73.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Draw + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Egersund over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Egersund, so a minus line means Egersund give that many goals of a start and Kongsvinger receive them. At -1, Egersund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Egersund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Egersund)
Egersund -2
4.2%
Draw -2
7.8%
Kongsvinger +2
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Egersund)
Egersund -1
12.0%
Draw -1
14.6%
Kongsvinger +1
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Egersund)
Egersund +1
50.8%
Draw +1
20.7%
Kongsvinger -1
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Egersund)
Egersund +2
71.5%
Draw +2
15.2%
Kongsvinger -2
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egersund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.4%
Under 1.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egersund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.06
0.88
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.24
1.25
1.25
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
Under 0.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.2%
Under 1.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Egersund's squad is €1m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Egersund's attack is €2m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Egersund and Kongsvinger have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Egersund and Kongsvinger have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →