Egersund’s recent draw streak and a 2-2 scoreline against Asane suggest a cautious start, yet their home form shows 1.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, a balance that could tip in their favour. Sogndal, returning from a 2-3 loss to Stromsgodset, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded on the road, indicating a sharper attack that may find space. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.4 goals and the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability. The favourite outcome is a home win, with 41% for Egersund, 25% for a draw, and 34% for Sogndal. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.8%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.8%), Home +2 handicap (82.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (82.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egersund win
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal win
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egersund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.62
1.38
1.71
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.38
1.42
1.58
1.58
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.33
1.73
1.80
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.63
1.36
1.50
2.08
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
1-0
5.1%
3-1
5.0%
0-1
4.6%
Egersund goals ↓
Sogndal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.6%
4.5%
2.4%
1.0%
1
5.1%
11%
7.8%
4.2%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.6%
6.9%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.1%
5.0%
4.0%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egersund goals (down), columns = Sogndal goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Egersund is 0.40 points better than Sogndal in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Egersund is 0.12 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Egersund is 0.29 goals better than Sogndal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Egersund or Draw
65.6%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Egersund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egersund or Sogndal
75.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Egersund + Sogndal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sogndal
59.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Draw + Sogndal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Egersund over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
Under
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Egersund, so a minus line means Egersund give that many goals of a start and Sogndal receive them. At -1, Egersund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Egersund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Egersund)
Egersund -2
9.5%
Draw -2
12.6%
Sogndal +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Egersund)
Egersund -1
22.0%
Draw -1
18.9%
Sogndal +1
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Egersund)
Egersund +1
65.6%
Draw +1
17.1%
Sogndal -1
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Egersund)
Egersund +2
82.7%
Draw +2
10.4%
Sogndal -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egersund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.80
0.40
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.67
0.79
0.36
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egersund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.06
0.88
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.53
1.33
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.96
0.57
1.14
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egersund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Egersund and Sogndal have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Egersund and Sogndal have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Egersund and Sogndal have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Egersund and Sogndal have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss