Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s defensive record is tight, conceding just one goal per match on average, while AF Elbasani keeps a similar 0.9 average at home. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance of victory, a 36% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an away win. The expected total of 1.7 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 19.3% probability. The single most probable total goals is one, at 28%. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with 90.4% and Under 2.5 with 75.2%. Egnatia Rrogozhinë are unbeaten in their last five, while AF Elbasani are coming off a draw. The match is projected to be tight, with both sides showing similar offensive and defensive strengths.
Results analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë extended their unbeaten run with a 3-1 win over AF Elbasani, a result that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 1.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 36% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model also selected Under 3.5 with a 90.4% chance, but the match produced four goals, so that pick missed. Under 2.5, at 75.2%, also missed. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home side’s victory, while the away team, after a draw, could not keep the goal tally low.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.00
0.93
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.88
0.92
1.00
0.93
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.90
1.93
0.87
1.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.95
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (11)
3.00
0.82
3.17
0.67
2.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.6%
Under 1.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.8%
Under 2.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
9.6%
Under 3.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.4%
No
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.3%
1-0
15.3%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
12.9%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.1%
0-2
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
13%
5.6%
1.5%
0.3%
1
15%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
7.7%
6.1%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
3
2.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.27 points better than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.23 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.27 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.71
0.50
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.58
0.44
0.56
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.18
1.67
0.33
1.20
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.29
0.43
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.38
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.37
0.67
0.44
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.33
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë's squad is €1m more valuable than AF Elbasani's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë's defence is €1m more valuable than AF Elbasani's (€3m vs €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vllaznia Shkodër
Partizani
Dinamo Tirana
Teuta Durrës
Bylis
Tirana
Skenderbeu Korce
Laci