Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s defensive solidity is highlighted by an average of 0.93 goals conceded at home, while Dinamo Tirana’s away form sees them conceding 1.07. The model projects a tight contest with a 46 % chance of a home win, 31 % draw, and 23 % away win, making a home victory the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a low-scoring affair, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 14.2 %. Egnatia’s home scoring average of 1.6 goals per match contrasts with Dinamo’s 0.93 away goals, reinforcing the home advantage. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries an 82.9 % probability. The match’s probabilities are 46 % home win, 31 % draw, and 23 % away win. This concise preview underscores defensive strengths, the projected 1-1 draw, and the strong likelihood of a low-scoring home win.
Results analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Tirana, set the stage for a strong home display. The model predicted a home win with a 46 % probability, and the result confirmed this, as the team secured a 2-0 victory. The favored outcome landed, and the model’s selection proved correct. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, with an 82.9 % probability, also hit, as the match saw only two goals. All other selections were settled, and the final score of 2-0 matched the expected total of 2 goals. The prediction model delivered a clean sweep of accurate calls.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.03
1.60
0.93
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.37
1.03
1.60
0.93
1.13
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
1.47
1.07
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.20
1.07
1.47
1.07
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.3%
Under 2.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.0%
No
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
13.0%
2-0 ✓
9.8%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.2%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals ↓
Dinamo Tirana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
2
9.8%
8.3%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tirana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Besa Kavajë
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.36 points better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Pogradeci
1.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Flamurtari
1.08
Vora
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.13 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.33
Besa Kavajë
0.50
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.08 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.67
0.60
0.13
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.67
0.60
0.13
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.13
0.40
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.53
1.13
0.40
0.53
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.37
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →