Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Partizani Result & Analysis

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Partizani face a razor-thin contest, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. Egnatia, at home, averages 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded against similar opposition, while Partizani, on the road, nets 1.3 and concedes 0.7. The probabilities of each result are 33% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 36% for an away win. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, enjoys an 80.2% probability. Recent form offers no clear edge: Egnatia remains unbeaten in five, while Partizani has just suffered a defeat. All figures are presented in plain percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact probability.

The pre-match favourite, Partizani, fell short of the model’s 36% chance of victory, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that matched the 31% probability. The upset is underscored by Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s unbeaten run of five games, while Partizani came off a recent defeat. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, proved accurate, hitting the 80.2% probability. The final score of 1-1 also aligns with the most likely 2-goal total, though the 1-1 outcome was the most probable scoreline at 14.6%. Overall, the prediction missed the winner but got the goal count right.