Egnatia Rrogozhinë are favoured to win, with a 54% chance of taking the match, 25% for a draw and 21% for Skenderbeu Korce to come away victorious. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 11.6% chance. Home side Egnatia, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Skenderbeu, on the road against a comparable opponent, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.9% probability. The recent form narrative is that Egnatia remain unbeaten in their last five, while Skenderbeu are coming off a defeat.
Results analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë kept their unbeaten run alive, extending a streak of wins and draws, while Skenderbeu Korce returned from a defeat. The match finished 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s favourite prediction. The model had given the home side a 54% chance of victory and labelled it the favourite; this call was correct. The expected total of 3.0 goals was far higher than the actual total of one, and the most likely score of 2-0 did not materialise. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 80.9%, missed, as only one goal was scored.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.07
1.60
1.33
1.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.09
1.36
1.18
1.73
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
1.00
2.25
1.75
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.97
1.40
0.73
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.14
1.27
0.82
0.90
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.75
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0 ✓
8.5%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals ↓
Skenderbeu Korce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.6%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.5%
12%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.6%
6.2%
3.4%
1.3%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (down), columns = Skenderbeu Korce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.34 points better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.32 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.11 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
1.07
0.40
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.82
0.36
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.75
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.48
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.11
0.75
0.25
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.53
0.93
1.20
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.59
0.55
0.82
1.18
0.36
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.25
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.73
0.40
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.67
0.64
0.45
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.44
1.00
0.25
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë's squad is €3m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë's defence is €2m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€3m vs €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Partizani
Vllaznia Shkodër
Tirana
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Erzeni Shijak
FK Kukesi
Flamurtari