Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity is the headline, with Egnatia Rrogozhinë averaging just 0.75 goals conceded per home match against similar opposition, while Skenderbeu Korce concedes one goal on the road. The model sees a 42% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw and 26% for an away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. The expected total is a tight 2.1 goals, with the most likely total number of goals being two, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance.

Egnatia’s home form is unbeaten in five games, recently beating Vora 3-1, and they have scored 1.44 goals per match at home. Skenderbeu, after a recent loss to Dinamo Tirana, has scored 0.88 goals away and conceded one. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with an 83.2% probability. The home win probability is 42%, the draw probability 32%, and the away win probability 26%.

The unexpected 0-0 draw stunned the pre-match favourite, Egnatia Rrogozhinë, who had been unbeaten in their last five matches and had a strong home form, yet the model’s pick for a home win at 42% was wrong. Skenderbeu Korce, fresh from a defeat, managed to hold the visitors to a stalemate, making the result a surprise for the model. The model’s single other selection, Under 3.5 goals with an 83.2% probability, proved correct. The match finished 0-0, a draw that left the pre-match probability of a home win unfulfilled while the total-goals prediction of 2.1 remained untested.