Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s defensive record at home - conceding just under one goal per match - sets the tone for a tight affair against Teuta Durrës, who average a little over one goal conceded away. The model favours a home win, with a 52% chance, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 17%. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a low-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, carrying a 17.6% probability. Egnatia’s 1.8 goals scored per game contrast with Teuta’s 0.75, while Egnatia’s 0.93 conceded per game is better than Teuta’s 1.06. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (95.3%), and Under 4.5 (95.3%). These figures underline a defensive, low-scoring contest with a clear home advantage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës win
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.50
1.13
1.79
0.93
1.25
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.6%
Under 1.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.3%
Under 2.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.0%
Under 3.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.8%
No
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.3%
0-0
15.8%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.8%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
4.0%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals ↓
Teuta Durrës goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
8.3%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
1
17%
13%
4.0%
0.9%
0.1%
2
12%
7.7%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
5.0%
3.3%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals (down), columns = Teuta Durrës goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.48 points better than Teuta Durrës in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.39 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë is 0.10 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw
82.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
32%
18%
covers Egnatia Rrogozhinë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Teuta Durrës
68.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
32%
18%
covers Egnatia Rrogozhinë + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Teuta Durrës
49.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
32%
18%
covers Draw + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Egnatia Rrogozhinë, so a minus line means Egnatia Rrogozhinë give that many goals of a start and Teuta Durrës receive them. At -1, Egnatia Rrogozhinë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Egnatia Rrogozhinë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -2
8.6%
Draw -2
15.4%
Teuta Durrës +2
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -1
24.0%
Draw -1
26.2%
Teuta Durrës +1
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +1
82.1%
Draw +1
12.9%
Teuta Durrës -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë +2
94.9%
Draw +2
4.1%
Teuta Durrës -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Teuta Durrës have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Teuta Durrës have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Teuta Durrës have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Teuta Durrës have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana