Ekranas’ recent form, a 0-5 loss to Be1 NFA, has left the home side struggling, while Dainava’s 0-1 defeat to Žalgiris II shows they are still finding rhythm. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning an 85% probability to that outcome. Home advantage is weak: Ekranas averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.38 conceded at home against stronger opponents, whereas Dainava’s away form is not yet fully revealed. The expected total goals for the match is 3.5, with the most likely total of three goals occurring 22% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 12.8% chance. Home win probability sits at 4%, draw at 11%, and away win at 85%. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.7%, Away +2 handicap at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 7.5 at 97.2%, Draw or Away at 96.1%, Away +1 handicap at 96.1%, Away over 0.5 goals at 94.9%, and Under 6.5 at 93.1%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ekranas win
4.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava win
83.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ekranas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.23
0.87
2.53
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.22
2.04
0.92
2.38
1.50
1.71
vs Similar (3)
0.33
4.00
0.50
3.50
0.00
5.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.62
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
0.57
1.71
1.62
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.92
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.9%
0-3
12.5%
0-4
9.0%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.6%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
5.7%
1-4
5.3%
Ekranas goals ↓
Dainava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
8.4%
13%
12%
9.0%
1
1.3%
5.7%
7.6%
7.3%
5.3%
2
0.5%
1.5%
2.2%
2.2%
1.6%
3
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekranas goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Ekranas is 0.93 points worse than Dainava in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Ekranas is 0.31 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Ekranas is 2.17 goals worse than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ekranas or Draw
16.4%
Avg Implied -
4%
12%
84%
covers Ekranas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekranas or Dainava
88.0%
Avg Implied -
4%
12%
84%
covers Ekranas + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dainava
95.6%
Avg Implied -
4%
12%
84%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ekranas over/under 0.5
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
94.5%
Under
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ekranas, so a minus line means Ekranas give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Ekranas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ekranas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -2
0.2%
Draw -2
0.9%
Dainava +2
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -1
1.1%
Draw -1
3.3%
Dainava +1
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +1
16.4%
Draw +1
18.4%
Dainava -1
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +2
34.7%
Draw +2
21.9%
Dainava -2
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ekranas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.78
0.31
0.77
0.64
0.79
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ekranas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
0.53
1.60
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (27)
0.74
1.26
0.62
1.62
0.86
0.93
vs Similar (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.31
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.14
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.58
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Ekranas and Dainava have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Dainava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Garliava