The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Garliava to triumph, 29% for Ekranas to win and 28% for a draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, but the most likely total is 2, a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Ekranas, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 3.5. Garliava, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 5.5 (94.0%) and Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the home win, draw and away win percentages are explicitly stated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ekranas win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ekranas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.23
0.87
2.53
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.22
2.04
0.92
2.38
1.50
1.71
vs Similar (3)
0.33
4.00
0.50
3.50
0.00
5.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.87
1.00
1.80
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (24)
1.17
1.88
1.17
1.83
1.17
1.92
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.33
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
Ekranas goals ↓
Garliava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.6%
7.6%
3.9%
1.5%
1
6.4%
13%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.6%
7.2%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
3
1.9%
2.9%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekranas goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Ekranas is 0.57 points better than Garliava in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Ekranas is 0.69 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 0.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Ekranas is 1.50 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ekranas or Draw
55.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
44%
covers Ekranas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekranas or Garliava
72.6%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
44%
covers Ekranas + Garliava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Garliava
71.5%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
44%
covers Draw + Garliava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ekranas over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ekranas, so a minus line means Ekranas give that many goals of a start and Garliava receive them. At -1, Ekranas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ekranas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -2
4.0%
Draw -2
8.3%
Garliava +2
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -1
12.2%
Draw -1
16.2%
Garliava +1
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +1
55.9%
Draw +1
21.2%
Garliava -1
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +2
77.1%
Draw +2
13.7%
Garliava -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ekranas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.78
0.31
0.77
0.64
0.79
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.83
0.42
0.83
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
Under 0.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.3%
Under 1.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ekranas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
0.53
1.60
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (27)
0.74
1.26
0.62
1.62
0.86
0.93
vs Similar (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.04
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.08
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
Under 0.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.0%
Under 2.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Ekranas and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →