Ekranas’ recent three defeats have left the home side vulnerable, especially against a stronger opponent, while Tauras, fresh from a draw, shows a solid away form with a favourable goal-scoring and conceding profile. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 78% chance. Home win stands at 7%, draw 15%. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Tauras, with a 12.8% probability.
Ekranas averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.38 conceded at home against stronger teams, whereas Tauras averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded away against weaker sides. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Away +2 handicap (98.2%), Under 7.5 (98.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (96.9%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Draw or Away (93.4%), Away +1 handicap (93.4%), and Away over 0.5 goals (92.7%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ekranas win
6.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras win
78.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ekranas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.23
0.87
2.53
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.22
2.04
0.92
2.38
1.50
1.71
vs Similar (3)
0.33
4.00
0.50
3.50
0.00
5.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.53
1.60
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
2.12
1.38
1.33
2.67
2.60
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
2.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.93
1.89
1.00
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.8%
0-3
11.1%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
7.5%
0-4
7.3%
1-1
7.2%
1-4
4.9%
Ekranas goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
9.1%
13%
11%
7.3%
1
1.8%
7.2%
8.6%
7.5%
4.9%
2
0.8%
2.2%
2.9%
2.5%
1.7%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekranas goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Ekranas is 0.93 points worse than Tauras in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Ekranas is 0.64 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Ekranas is 1.67 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ekranas or Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Ekranas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekranas or Tauras
84.9%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Ekranas + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tauras
93.4%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Draw + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ekranas over/under 0.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 3.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ekranas, so a minus line means Ekranas give that many goals of a start and Tauras receive them. At -1, Ekranas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ekranas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.5%
Tauras +2
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas -1
1.8%
Draw -1
4.8%
Tauras +1
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +1
21.7%
Draw +1
20.6%
Tauras -1
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ekranas)
Ekranas +2
42.2%
Draw +2
22.1%
Tauras -2
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ekranas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.78
0.31
0.77
0.64
0.79
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
0.62
0.33
1.67
1.60
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ekranas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
0.53
1.60
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (27)
0.74
1.26
0.62
1.62
0.86
0.93
vs Similar (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Ekranas and Tauras have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Tauras have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Tauras have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Ekranas and Tauras have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Garliava