Ekranas and Žalgiris II are set for a high-scoring encounter, with the expected total goals standing at 3.3. Žalgiris II's recent form, coming off a draw, and averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded while away, suggests they may find the back of the net. Ekranas, however, has struggled at home, averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded against similar opponents.
The model predicts an away win for Žalgiris II, with a 52% probability, making it the favourite match result. The model's selection is the away win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. Over 1.5 goals is the model's selection, with an 85% probability, and has a 7% edge.
Ekranas has a 24% chance of winning at home, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 52% chance of losing to Žalgiris II. Žalgiris II has a 52% chance of winning away, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 24% chance of losing to Ekranas.
Results analysis
The draw between Ekranas and Žalgiris II has extended Žalgiris II's run of consecutive draws, with the final score being 1-1. This result was a major upset, as Žalgiris II was the pre-match favourite, with a 52% probability of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its selection, Žalgiris II away win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Žalgiris II did not manage to secure the win. The model's selection, Žalgiris II away win, had a 52% probability of occurring. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with an 85% probability of being correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ekranas win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.52
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Bet365
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
52.4%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.34
Edge
+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
William Hil
2.38
Dafabet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.37
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ekranas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.03
1.21
2.07
1.25
2.00
vs Stronger (26)
1.38
1.85
1.33
1.83
1.43
1.86
vs Similar (4)
0.25
3.25
0.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.50
1.60
1.47
1.73
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
1.62
1.25
1.50
2.25
1.75
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.19
1.75
1.38
1.62
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
2.17
1.67
1.67
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Under 1.5
15.0%
@ 4.11-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.63+8.0%
Under 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.06-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.8%
@ 2.57+6.3%
Under 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.42-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Superbet
2.57
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Under
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
@ 1.52+4.0%
No
36.2%
@ 2.26-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
No
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.6%@ 6.46+4.2%
1-2
9.6%@ 8.31+4.6%
0-2
7.4%@ 11.57+3.8%
0-1
6.4%@ 9.09+1.9%
1-3
6.4%@ 14.86+3.6%
2-1
6.3%@ 8.86+1.6%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.54+2.3%
0-3
4.9%@ 20.86+2.9%
Ekranas goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.4%
7.4%
4.9%
2.4%
1
3.9%
11%
9.6%
6.4%
3.2%
2
3.2%
6.3%
6.2%
4.1%
2.1%
3
1.4%
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
4
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ekranas goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Ekranas is 1.93 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Ekranas is 1.00 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Ekranas is 2.07 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ekranas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.50
0.93
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.71
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ekranas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.71
1.14
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (26)
0.88
1.12
0.83
1.08
0.93
1.14
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.0%
1.17
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Ekranas and Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BFA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Jonava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Garliava