This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
1.11
1.43
1.00
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (19)
1.00
1.00
0.88
0.62
1.09
1.27
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.38
2.17
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.48+11.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.52-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
7.8%
2-0 ✓
6.4%
0-2
5.9%
Eldense goals ↓
Racing Ferrol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.8%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.2%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.4%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.8%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eldense goals (down), columns = Racing Ferrol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Eldense is 0.21 points worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Eldense is 0.07 goals worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Eldense is 0.10 goals worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Eldense is 6.8 percentage points worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Eldense
For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Ferrol
For 4.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eldense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
9.7
9.6
9.7
4.2
3.9
4.4
26.6
26.8
26.4
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
9.4
12.5
4.9
4.2
5.8
28.6
29.2
27.8
vs Similar (18)
9.1
9.8
8.6
3.8
3.8
3.9
25.6
25.2
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
62%
43%
56%
62%
50%
74%
69%
79%
% under line
48%
38%
57%
44%
38%
50%
26%
31%
21%
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
8.3
8.8
7.7
4.0
4.4
3.7
25.0
26.1
23.8
vs Stronger (19)
8.1
8.1
8.1
4.1
4.8
3.6
25.5
27.2
24.2
vs Similar (8)
8.6
9.7
5.5
3.9
3.8
4.0
24.0
24.7
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
30%
36%
23%
70%
71%
69%
67%
79%
54%
% under line
70%
64%
77%
30%
29%
31%
33%
21%
46%
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mirandes
10.2
Huesca
10.1
Sporting Gijon
10.0
Espanyol
9.9
Valladolid
9.8
Burgos
9.8
Oviedo
9.7
Eldense
9.7
Levante
9.6
Racing Santander
9.5
Elche
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Zaragoza
9.2
Villarreal II
9.1
Amorebieta
9.1
Leganes
9.1
Tenerife
9.1
Alcorcon
8.9
FC Cartagena
8.9
Albacete
8.4
Racing Ferrol
8.3
FC Andorra
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Espanyol
5.9
Racing Santander
5.6
Levante
5.6
Elche
5.5
Oviedo
5.4
Tenerife
5.3
FC Cartagena
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Leganes
5.2
Huesca
5.1
Zaragoza
5.0
FC Andorra
5.0
Valladolid
5.0
Mirandes
5.0
Eibar
4.9
Villarreal II
4.9
Albacete
4.7
Alcorcon
4.6
Amorebieta
4.4
Burgos
4.3
Eldense
4.2
Racing Ferrol
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
31.0
Leganes
28.5
Espanyol
27.8
Oviedo
27.5
Tenerife
27.4
Valladolid
27.3
FC Cartagena
27.3
Albacete
27.2
Elche
27.1
Huesca
26.6
Eldense
26.6
Levante
26.3
FC Andorra
25.7
Zaragoza
25.7
Alcorcon
25.7
Villarreal II
25.4
Amorebieta
25.2
Racing Ferrol
25.0
Mirandes
24.7
Eibar
24.1
Burgos
23.3
Sporting Gijon
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.7%
Under 9.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.9%
Under 21.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Eldense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.69
0.85
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
0.60
1.60
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.38
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.41
0.29
0.21
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.37
0.12
0.00
0.73
0.64
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eldense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Eldense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.77
0.62
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.78
1.00
0.40
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.75
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.70
1.14
0.79
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
0.63
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.88
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eldense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Eldense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juanto Ortuño27%
Mario Soberón21%
Iván Chapela20%
Eddie Salcedo18%
Florin Andone10%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz10%
Dario Đumić6%
Jesús Clemente6%
Carlos4%
Christian Montes3%
Pedro Capó3%
David Timor3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Derick Poloni0%
Álex Martínez0%
Marc Mateu0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Piña0%
Alex Bernal0%
Toni Abad0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Timor35%
Dario Đumić34%
Florin Andone24%
Youness Lachhab22%
Jesús Clemente22%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz20%
Toni Abad18%
Derick Poloni16%
Alex Bernal15%
Dauda Mohammed14%
Ian Mackay Abad14%
Pedro Capó13%
Carlos11%
Marc-Olivier Doué11%
Piña10%
Andoni Zubiaurre10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Juanto Ortuño8%
Joel Jorquera8%
Marc Mateu8%
Mario Soberón6%
Iván Chapela5%
Christian Montes3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Álex Martínez0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Mateu18%
Toni Abad18%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Mario Soberón9%
Jesús Clemente8%
Alex Bernal6%
Florin Andone3%
Piña3%
Dario Đumić3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Derick Poloni0%
Álex Martínez0%
Carlos0%
David Timor0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Juanto Ortuño0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Christian Montes0%
Pedro Capó0%
Iván Chapela0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mario Soberón15%
Jesús Clemente14%
Juanto Ortuño11%
Florin Andone10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Carlos7%
David Timor5%
Iván Chapela5%
Derick Poloni4%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz2%
Dario Đumić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Álex Martínez0%
Marc Mateu0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Christian Montes0%
Piña0%
Alex Bernal0%
Toni Abad0%
Pedro Capó0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Racing Ferrol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nico Serrano29%
Álvaro Giménez24%
Iker Losada21%
Carlos Vicente19%
Josep Señé17%
Álvaro Vadillo12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Sabin Merino8%
Jon Garcia5%
Manu Justo5%
Alex López3%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Nacho Sánchez0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Sergio Cubero0%
Brais Martínez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Moises Delgado27%
Álvaro Vadillo25%
Jon Garcia24%
David Castro24%
Óscar Pinchi18%
Jesús Bernal17%
Brais Martínez17%
Sergio Cubero15%
Alex López12%
Álex Martín12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Josep Señé10%
Enrique Clemente10%
Carlos Vicente10%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Nico Serrano7%
Francisco De La Manzanara7%
Sabin Merino6%
Julián Delmás5%
Manu Justo5%
Ander Cantero2%
Chuca0%
Iker Losada0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Heber Pena Picos22%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada14%
Nico Serrano14%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Jon Garcia5%
Jesús Bernal5%
Josep Señé3%
Sergio Cubero3%
David Castro3%
Alex López0%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Sabin Merino0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Enrique Clemente0%
Brais Martínez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nico Serrano29%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada17%
Álvaro Giménez13%
Heber Pena Picos8%
Alex López6%
Sabin Merino6%
Nacho Sánchez4%
Sergio Cubero3%
Jon Garcia3%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Josep Señé0%
Óscar Pinchi0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Brais Martínez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →