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Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 03/09/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
27%
26%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.06
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.46
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.11
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L20W14L02L13L22D22D22D12LA·ALB02/04H·STE09/04A·STI16/04H·COW23/04A·STR30/04H·EAS30/07A·STI06/08A·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.501.201.330.871.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.561.001.330.002.00
vs Weaker (21)1.191.481.331.331.081.58
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W22D02L10WH·FOR30/07A·EAS06/08A·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.801.000.672.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.501.000.002.003.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.671.500.002.002.00
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.72+3.8%
Under 2.5
42.1%
@ 2.03-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.5%
Elgin goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
06.0%7.4%7.4%4.3%1.8%
15.2%12%9.4%5.5%2.4%
24.0%7.0%6.0%3.5%1.5%
31.7%3.0%2.6%1.5%0.6%
40.5%1.0%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin is 0.06 points worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Elgin is 0.42 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.31).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 4.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

18014612110443355663263551811861012595A·DUMH·STRA·FORA·STIH·EASA·STRH·COWA·STIH·STEA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

10046143421131121222110573141343A·DUMH·STRA·FORA·STIH·EASA·STRH·COWA·STIH·STEA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 24.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

3101411102015912141112205126181314571325302426232518311920A·DUMH·STRA·FORA·STIH·EASA·STRH·COWA·STIH·STEA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

13048146727612513213H·STIH·ALBA·STRA·EASH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

702211253242732H·STIH·ALBA·STRA·EASH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

25012121398810158102422162518H·STIH·ALBA·STRA·EASH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.78.68.83.94.03.822.823.422.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)9.09.18.92.92.73.121.621.921.4
vs Weaker (33)8.68.38.84.54.94.223.324.322.5
% over line30%21%38%52%62%42%61%67%56%
% under line70%79%62%48%38%58%39%33%44%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (5)9.010.07.53.62.75.021.021.320.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (2)3.55.02.02.52.03.023.522.025.0
vs Weaker (3)12.712.513.04.33.07.019.321.016.0
% over line60%67%50%40%33%50%60%67%50%
% under line40%33%50%60%67%50%40%33%50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.7
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.6
Forfar
9.5
Stranraer
9.3
East Fife
9.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.0
Albion Rvs
8.8
Elgin
8.7
Stirling
8.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.2
Dumbarton
4.0
Elgin
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Stirling
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
3.6
East Fife
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.2
Forfar
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.8
Stirling
22.4
Stranraer
22.2
Forfar
22.2
Dumbarton
22.0
Annan Athletic
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.7
East Fife
21.2
Albion Rvs
21.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.6%
Under 9.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.3%
Under 21.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D00D02L20W11D21W10WA·ALB02/04H·STE09/04A·STI16/04H·COW23/04A·STR30/04H·EAS30/07A·STI06/08A·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.600.670.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.670.330.500.001.00
vs Weaker (21)0.670.570.780.780.580.42
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W11D01L10WH·FOR30/07A·EAS06/08A·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.330.331.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L20W14L02L11D02L11D01L02LA·ALB02/04H·STE09/04A·STI16/04H·COW23/04A·STR30/04H·EAS30/07A·STI06/08A·FOR13/08H·STR20/08A·DUM27/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.600.670.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.890.670.830.001.00
vs Weaker (21)0.520.900.560.560.501.17
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D01L00DH·FOR30/07A·EAS06/08A·STR13/08H·ALB20/08H·STI27/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.670.331.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners83.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.581.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards79.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls77.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards75.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners74.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ELG wins
0
Draws
0
BR wins

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22ADumbarton Vs ELG2-1
20/08/22HELG Vs Stranraer2-2
13/08/22AForfar Vs ELG2-2
06/08/22AStirling Vs ELG2-2
30/07/22HELG Vs East Fife1-3
30/04/22AStranraer Vs ELG2-0
23/04/22HELG Vs Cowdenbeath1-4
16/04/22AStirling Vs ELG0-2
09/04/22HELG Vs Stenhousemuir0-2
02/04/22AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG0-0

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22HBR Vs Stirling1-0
20/08/22HBR Vs Albion Rvs0-2
13/08/22AStranraer Vs BR2-2
06/08/22AEast Fife Vs BR0-3
30/07/22HBR Vs Forfar2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.06
HomeWLLLD1.42
AwayWLDDL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%15%
AVG goals2.642.832.46
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored1.101.380.85
Conceded1.541.461.62
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners8.748.628.85
Cards3.944.043.85
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW2.00
HomeWLW2.00
AwayWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%67%50%
AVG goals2.401.673.50
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%0%100%
Over 3.5 %20%0%50%
Scored1.601.002.50
Conceded0.800.671.00
BTTS20%0%50%
Clean Sheet60%67%50%
Corners9.0010.007.50
Cards3.602.675.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose		3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs		3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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