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Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 04/03/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
40%
31%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✗ Miss
39.8%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.94
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.46
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.46
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L10W12L11D02L11D01L03L21WH·STE03/12H·STI23/12A·FOR02/01H·EAS07/01H·ANN14/01A·STE28/01H·ALB04/02H·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.201.671.531.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.101.701.171.671.001.75
vs Weaker (20)1.501.601.221.671.731.55
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D32W04L04L01L12L10W12L01L11DA·EAS10/12H·STR23/12H·ALB07/01A·ANN21/01A·DUM28/01H·ANN04/02A·STR11/02H·STI14/02H·STE25/02H·FOR28/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.621.211.860.831.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.882.120.753.251.001.00
vs Weaker (18)1.111.391.401.300.751.50
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.1%
Under 1.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.1%
@ 1.84-11.7%
Under 2.5
60.9%
@ 1.90+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
11.7%
0-1 ✓
9.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.5%
Elgin goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
012%9.4%5.5%1.8%0.5%
112%15%6.7%2.3%0.6%
28.0%8.2%4.2%1.4%0.4%
33.3%3.4%1.7%0.6%0.1%
41.0%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin is 0.06 points worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Elgin is 0.42 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.31).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 3.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

1403213435324265895210155478681314126A·DUMA·ALBH·STRH·ALBA·STEH·ANNH·EASA·FORH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60332233244215323116466606352A·DUMA·ALBH·STRH·ALBA·STEH·ANNH·EASA·FORH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

300151510107111316149811101791011157930201829231927192616A·DUMA·ALBH·STRH·ALBA·STEH·ANNH·EASA·FORH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 5.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

16053565484979531563326811912161441168H·FORH·STEH·STIA·STRH·ANNA·DUMA·ANNH·ALBH·STRA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7025213212212413112317353325434H·FORH·STEH·STIA·STRH·ANNA·DUMA·ANNH·ALBH·STRA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

35015201171413139156958618111312141135182722211414292525H·FORH·STEH·STIA·STRH·ANNA·DUMA·ANNH·ALBH·STRA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.58.58.54.44.24.522.522.622.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (16)8.49.27.23.93.74.322.923.022.8
vs Weaker (34)8.58.18.94.64.64.622.322.322.2
% over line34%27%42%62%62%62%55%54%57%
% under line66%73%58%38%38%38%45%46%43%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (26)9.610.09.24.43.94.921.823.120.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (8)8.49.27.53.83.83.822.222.522.0
vs Weaker (18)10.210.310.04.74.05.521.723.319.6
% over line50%57%42%62%57%67%58%57%58%
% under line50%43%58%38%43%33%42%43%42%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Forfar
10.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.6
Stranraer
9.3
Albion Rvs
9.2
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
9.0
Elgin
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Dumbarton
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Albion Rvs
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.5
Albion Rvs
22.0
Forfar
21.9
Stirling
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.8
Stranraer
21.2
Annan Athletic
20.9
East Fife
20.9
Stenhousemuir
20.9
Dumbarton
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.2%
Under 9.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.2%
Under 3.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.9%
Under 21.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D02L10W01L01L01L00D11DH·STE03/12H·STI23/12A·FOR02/01H·EAS07/01H·ANN14/01A·STE28/01H·ALB04/02H·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.530.800.870.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.600.170.830.750.25
vs Weaker (20)0.850.650.780.780.910.55
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W03L01L01L12L00D01L00D00DA·EAS10/12H·STR23/12H·ALB07/01A·ANN21/01A·DUM28/01H·ANN04/02A·STR11/02H·STI14/02H·STE25/02H·FOR28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.850.500.930.500.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.501.250.251.750.750.75
vs Weaker (18)0.500.670.600.600.380.75
Clean sheet %42% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W10W01L01L10W00D03L10WH·STE03/12H·STI23/12A·FOR02/01H·EAS07/01H·ANN14/01A·STE28/01H·ALB04/02H·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.670.870.671.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.701.101.000.830.251.50
vs Weaker (20)0.650.950.440.890.821.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L03L00D00D10W11D01L11DA·EAS10/12H·STR23/12H·ALB07/01A·ANN21/01A·DUM28/01H·ANN04/02A·STR11/02H·STI14/02H·STE25/02H·FOR28/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.540.770.710.930.330.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.880.501.500.250.25
vs Weaker (18)0.610.720.800.700.380.75
Clean sheet %46% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls81.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.580.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
ELG wins
0
Draws
0
BR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-3
03/09/22HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23ADumbarton Vs ELG1-2
21/02/23AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG3-0
18/02/23HELG Vs Stranraer0-1
04/02/23HELG Vs Albion Rvs1-1
28/01/23AStenhousemuir Vs ELG2-0
14/01/23HELG Vs Annan Athletic1-1
07/01/23HELG Vs East Fife1-2
02/01/23AForfar Vs ELG0-1
23/12/22HELG Vs Stirling1-2
03/12/22HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-1

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/23HBR Vs Forfar1-1
25/02/23HBR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
14/02/23HBR Vs Stirling1-2
11/02/23AStranraer Vs BR0-1
04/02/23HBR Vs Annan Athletic1-2
28/01/23ADumbarton Vs BR1-0
21/01/23AAnnan Athletic Vs BR4-0
07/01/23HBR Vs Albion Rvs0-4
23/12/22HBR Vs Stranraer3-2
10/12/22AEast Fife Vs BR0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.22
HomeLLDDL1.31
AwayWWLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals2.722.542.92
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.221.231.21
Conceded1.501.311.71
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners8.508.508.50
Cards4.364.234.50
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD0.92
HomeLLLLD1.00
AwayDDLLW0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%29%17%
AVG goals2.653.072.17
Over 1.5 %77%86%67%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %27%36%17%
Scored1.041.210.83
Conceded1.621.861.33
BTTS50%57%42%
Clean Sheet23%21%25%
Corners9.6210.009.17
Cards4.383.934.92

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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