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Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
41%
32%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.50
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.29
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.61
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W12L01L21W10W02L21W22D11D12LH·STR06/01A·FOR13/01H·DUM27/01H·CLY30/01H·EAS03/02A·BON06/02A·SPA10/02H·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.731.210.930.622.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.852.311.201.200.623.00
vs Weaker (17)0.941.291.220.780.621.88
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L11D00D00D20W02L00D12L01L22DA·CLY06/01H·DUM13/01A·FOR27/01H·STR03/02H·ELG06/02H·EAS17/02A·PET20/02A·SPA24/02H·STE02/03H·SPA05/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.231.531.131.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.851.232.431.141.171.33
vs Weaker (17)0.821.240.751.120.891.33
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 1.94-12.0%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.80+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
Under 3.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.1%
1-0 ✓
12.9%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.1%
Elgin goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
013%9.6%5.1%1.6%0.4%
113%15%6.2%1.9%0.4%
28.6%8.0%3.7%1.2%0.3%
33.4%3.2%1.5%0.5%0.1%
41.0%1.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Elgin is 0.03 points better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Elgin is 0.33 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Elgin is 0.31 goals worse than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.33).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 5.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

14046445455568684543632108910111412995A·CLYA·PETH·STEA·SPAA·BONH·EASH·CLYH·DUMA·FORH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

702125121231112142123733422163A·CLYA·PETH·STEA·SPAA·BONH·EASH·CLYH·DUMA·FORH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

3201191220810111110181211101313132011131220321822282323263125A·CLYA·PETH·STEA·SPAA·BONH·EASH·CLYH·DUMA·FORH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 5.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

17051656113422657674697761117741113111514H·SPAH·STEA·SPAA·PETH·EASH·ELGH·STRA·FORH·DUMA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8011353123113514132112383446552H·SPAH·STEA·SPAA·PETH·EASH·ELGH·STRA·FORH·DUMA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.6

⚠ïļ Fouls

31014171115151010915151810121012129116531262519302822242011H·SPAH·STEA·SPAA·PETH·EASH·ELGH·STRA·FORH·DUMA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.78.53.63.73.623.023.222.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (19)8.58.88.44.25.53.323.925.522.8
vs Weaker (31)8.68.78.63.32.83.922.422.122.7
% over line36%36%36%52%44%60%58%56%60%
% under line64%64%64%48%56%40%42%44%40%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.710.19.34.34.34.223.524.722.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)9.610.78.44.23.64.825.626.924.2
vs Weaker (32)9.89.89.84.34.83.922.423.521.2
% over line46%52%40%60%60%60%60%64%56%
% under line54%48%60%40%40%40%40%36%44%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.7
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Forfar
10.3
Stranraer
10.0
Clyde
10.0
East Fife
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Spartans
9.2
Peterhead
9.1
Elgin
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.7
Dumbarton
4.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.1
East Fife
4.0
Elgin
3.6
Stranraer
3.6
Forfar
3.5
Spartans
3.5
Clyde
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.5
Forfar
23.1
Elgin
23.0
East Fife
21.6
Stenhousemuir
21.3
Dumbarton
20.7
Spartans
20.6
Stranraer
20.3
Clyde
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.3%
Under 9.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.0%
Under 3.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L11D10W01L00D21W11D10WH·STR06/01A·FOR13/01H·DUM27/01H·CLY30/01H·EAS03/02A·BON06/02A·SPA10/02H·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.770.570.640.190.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.310.850.600.600.121.00
vs Weaker (17)0.410.710.560.670.250.75
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W00D00D10W02L00D02L00D11DA·CLY06/01H·DUM13/01A·FOR27/01H·STR03/02H·ELG06/02H·EAS17/02A·PET20/02A·SPA24/02H·STE02/03H·SPA05/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.600.530.330.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.460.860.570.330.33
vs Weaker (17)0.350.650.380.500.330.78
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L00D10W00D01L21W01L00D02LH·STR06/01A·FOR13/01H·DUM27/01H·CLY30/01H·EAS03/02A·BON06/02A·SPA10/02H·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.640.290.441.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.541.460.600.600.502.00
vs Weaker (17)0.530.590.670.110.381.12
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D00D10W00D00D10W01L11DA·CLY06/01H·DUM13/01A·FOR27/01H·STR03/02H·ELG06/02H·EAS17/02A·PET20/02A·SPA24/02H·STE02/03H·SPA05/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.670.930.600.670.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.230.771.570.570.831.00
vs Weaker (17)0.470.590.380.620.560.56
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls78.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards77.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards76.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners76.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
ELG wins
0
Draws
4
BR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
06/02/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-0
11/11/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0
02/09/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG5-1
06/05/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG3-0
04/03/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1
05/11/22ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-3
03/09/22HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24AClyde Vs ELG2-1
24/02/24APeterhead Vs ELG1-1
17/02/24HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-2
10/02/24ASpartans Vs ELG1-2
06/02/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-0
03/02/24HELG Vs East Fife1-0
30/01/24HELG Vs Clyde2-1
27/01/24HELG Vs Dumbarton0-1
13/01/24AForfar Vs ELG2-1
06/01/24HELG Vs Stranraer2-1

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/24HBR Vs Spartans2-2
02/03/24HBR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
24/02/24ASpartans Vs BR2-1
20/02/24APeterhead Vs BR0-0
17/02/24HBR Vs East Fife0-2
06/02/24HBR Vs Elgin2-0
03/02/24HBR Vs Stranraer0-0
27/01/24AForfar Vs BR0-0
13/01/24HBR Vs Dumbarton1-1
06/01/24AClyde Vs BR3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.00
HomeWLWWD1.44
AwayLLWDL0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals2.582.242.92
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %20%12%28%
Scored0.861.040.68
Conceded1.721.202.24
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet16%24%8%
Corners8.608.728.48
Cards3.643.683.60
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.18
HomeDWLLD1.20
AwayWLDDL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.302.602.00
Over 1.5 %68%80%56%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.061.280.84
Conceded1.241.321.16
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet30%16%44%
Corners9.7210.129.32
Cards4.284.324.24

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3668
50%
1.9
5031+19
2.2
64%
36%
22%
9.8
50%
4.2
61%
23.0
56%
0
0001.40.9
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3660
44%
1.7
5839+19
2.7
81%
56%
25%
8.7
39%
5.1
89%
25.0
78%
0
0001.61.1
-
3SpartansSpartans3658
42%
1.6
5343+10
2.7
69%
56%
31%
9.4
47%
3.2
42%
20.9
44%
0
0001.51.2
-
4DumbartonDumbarton3657
44%
1.6
5644+12
2.8
67%
44%
36%
11.1
61%
3.9
61%
19.8
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5East FifeEast Fife3644
31%
1.2
4647-1
2.6
81%
47%
25%
9.1
44%
3.5
56%
21.9
50%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ForfarForfar3642
25%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
72%
42%
22%
9.7
50%
3.5
50%
24.8
75%
0
0001.11.2
-
7ElginElgin3640
28%
1.1
3559-24
2.6
81%
50%
22%
8.8
39%
3.7
47%
25.0
69%
0
0001.01.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3639
25%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
78%
44%
31%
9.6
44%
4.0
50%
24.2
58%
0
0001.31.3
-
9ClydeClyde3638
25%
1.1
4658-12
2.9
83%
56%
28%
9.0
42%
3.4
50%
20.8
50%
0
0001.31.6
-
10StranraerStranraer3636
25%
1.0
3853-15
2.5
75%
47%
25%
10.3
67%
3.6
44%
20.0
36%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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