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Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 04/02/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 3-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
59%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
59.4%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.02
Edge
+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.26
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.42
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W12L24L42W01L20W11D03L00D10WH·KEL30/11A·EAS07/12H·STI14/12H·CLY17/12A·EDI21/12H·PET28/12A·FOR11/01H·ABE18/01A·CLY25/01H·EAS01/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.601.691.810.931.36
vs Stronger (2)0.004.000.004.00--
vs Similar (13)1.621.542.001.001.172.17
vs Weaker (15)1.271.331.862.000.750.75
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D21W15L02L02L22D03L31W21WA·STR16/11H·EAS30/11H·STI03/12A·FOR14/12A·PET21/12A·EDI04/01H·SPA21/01A·STI25/01H·STR28/01H·CLY01/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.501.670.931.072.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.091.731.171.171.002.40
vs Weaker (19)1.531.372.000.781.101.90
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.7%
@ 2.01+12.2%
Under 2.5
41.3%
@ 1.75-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.7%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.7%
3-0 ✓
6.5%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.1%
Elgin goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
05.7%3.9%2.5%0.9%0.2%
18.6%11%5.1%1.7%0.4%
29.7%10.0%5.1%1.7%0.4%
36.5%6.7%3.4%1.2%0.3%
43.3%3.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Elgin is 0.36 points better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Elgin is 0.58 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

13056264859445567165461184131391181110H·EASA·CLYA·FORH·PETA·EDIH·CLYH·STIA·EASH·FORA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 5.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70425124341353316244737445676H·EASA·CLYA·FORH·PETA·EDIH·CLYH·STIA·EASH·FORA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.8 · Total 23.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

30010711139171491118689181011121891917242623291427213028H·EASA·CLYA·FORH·PETA·EDIH·CLYH·STIA·EASH·FORA·BON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 3.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

17024222106254174136815236412898171465H·CLYH·STRA·STIH·SPAA·EDIA·PETA·FORH·STIH·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60411233312551131415363356145H·CLYH·STRA·STIH·SPAA·EDIA·PETA·FORH·STIH·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

310151518131591610109166711610141712930312426192218163121H·CLYH·STRA·STIH·SPAA·EDIA·PETA·FORH·STIH·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.09.03.83.44.225.024.225.8
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (23)9.39.19.64.03.84.225.724.227.8
vs Weaker (25)8.78.88.53.93.54.224.424.324.5
% over line42%41%43%54%48%61%72%68%76%
% under line58%59%57%46%52%39%28%32%24%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.410.04.54.14.923.825.522.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (21)9.29.49.14.64.54.726.429.123.5
vs Weaker (29)10.19.510.74.43.75.021.822.721.0
% over line46%48%44%62%60%64%60%68%52%
% under line54%52%56%38%40%36%40%32%48%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.7
Stranraer
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.1
Elgin
8.8
Peterhead
8.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Stirling
4.2
Forfar
4.1
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.8
Forfar
24.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.3
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.3
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
21.3
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.8%
Under 9.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.7%
Under 21.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D13L30W00D10W00D01L00D10WH·KEL30/11A·EAS07/12H·STI14/12H·CLY17/12A·EDI21/12H·PET28/12A·FOR11/01H·ABE18/01A·CLY25/01H·EAS01/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.690.750.430.50
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.50--
vs Similar (13)0.620.540.710.140.501.00
vs Weaker (15)0.600.600.861.140.380.12
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D02L00D01L11D03L20W20WA·STR16/11H·EAS30/11H·STI03/12A·FOR14/12A·PET21/12A·EDI04/01H·SPA21/01A·STI25/01H·STR28/01H·CLY01/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.730.130.470.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.640.360.670.170.600.60
vs Weaker (19)0.580.630.780.110.401.10
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L11D12L01L10W11D02L00D00DH·KEL30/11A·EAS07/12H·STI14/12H·CLY17/12A·EDI21/12H·PET28/12A·FOR11/01H·ABE18/01A·CLY25/01H·EAS01/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.971.001.060.500.86
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.002.50--
vs Similar (13)1.001.001.290.860.671.17
vs Weaker (15)0.670.731.000.860.380.62
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L21W13L02L01L11D00D11D01LA·STR16/11H·EAS30/11H·STI03/12A·FOR14/12A·PET21/12A·EDI04/01H·SPA21/01A·STI25/01H·STR28/01H·CLY01/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.930.800.601.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.451.360.501.000.401.80
vs Weaker (19)0.950.741.220.670.700.80
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards87.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls79.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards74.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
ELG wins
0
Draws
5
BR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-0
14/09/24HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-1
09/03/24HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-0
06/02/24ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-0
11/11/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0
02/09/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG5-1
06/05/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG3-0
04/03/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/25HELG Vs East Fife1-0
25/01/25AClyde Vs ELG0-0
18/01/25HELG Vs Aberdeen0-3
11/01/25AForfar Vs ELG1-1
28/12/24HELG Vs Peterhead2-0
21/12/24AEdinburgh City Vs ELG1-0
17/12/24HELG Vs Clyde4-2
14/12/24HELG Vs Stirling2-4
07/12/24AEast Fife Vs ELG2-1
30/11/24HELG Vs Kelty Hearts3-2

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/25HBR Vs Clyde2-1
28/01/25HBR Vs Stranraer3-1
25/01/25AStirling Vs BR3-0
21/01/25HBR Vs Spartans2-2
04/01/25AEdinburgh City Vs BR2-0
21/12/24APeterhead Vs BR2-0
14/12/24AForfar Vs BR5-1
03/12/24HBR Vs Stirling2-1
30/11/24HBR Vs East Fife1-1
16/11/24AStranraer Vs BR1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW1.40
HomeLWWLW1.74
AwayLLLDD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%22%
AVG goals2.763.112.35
Over 1.5 %80%81%78%
Over 2.5 %50%59%39%
Over 3.5 %26%33%17%
Scored1.241.520.91
Conceded1.521.591.43
BTTS60%63%57%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners8.958.958.95
Cards4.374.144.62
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.16
HomeDWDWW1.60
AwayWLLLL0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals2.702.602.80
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.221.520.92
Conceded1.481.081.88
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners9.749.4410.04
Cards4.484.084.88

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PeterheadPeterhead3666
53%
1.8
5240+12
2.6
61%
44%
33%
8.5
36%
5.3
86%
25.0
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
2East FifeEast Fife3665
56%
1.8
6537+28
2.8
72%
47%
28%
9.7
56%
4.2
67%
23.6
58%
0
0001.81.0
-
3Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3656
47%
1.6
5447+7
2.8
75%
47%
28%
9.2
42%
4.8
81%
24.4
72%
0
0001.51.3
-
4ElginElgin3655
44%
1.5
4841+7
2.5
72%
39%
19%
9.4
53%
4.8
75%
23.4
61%
0
0001.31.1
-
5SpartansSpartans3652
42%
1.4
4847+1
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.8
39%
4.2
67%
22.0
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StirlingStirling3648
39%
1.3
5057-7
3.0
86%
61%
33%
10.1
64%
4.2
61%
21.5
47%
0
0001.41.6
-
7ClydeClyde3643
31%
1.2
4954-5
2.9
83%
50%
33%
9.6
50%
4.6
64%
22.8
58%
0
0001.41.5
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
33%
1.2
4062-22
2.8
86%
50%
28%
9.0
39%
4.9
78%
24.4
69%
0
0001.11.7
-
9StranraerStranraer3640
31%
1.1
3442-8
2.1
67%
42%
11%
9.1
42%
4.2
56%
20.6
33%
0
0000.91.2
-
10ForfarForfar3636
22%
1.0
2942-13
2.0
61%
33%
11%
9.3
36%
4.9
78%
24.7
78%
0
0000.81.2
-
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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