Elgin’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, sets the tone for a high-scoring encounter, while Clyde’s 3-3 draw with Spartans shows they can keep the scoreline close. The model predicts a home win with a 59% chance, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 19%. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, whereas Clyde, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98%), Away under 3.5 goals (97%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Home +2 handicap (92.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.9%), Under 5.5 (88.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.3%), and Over 1.5 (85%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win
59.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
1.67
1.53
1.80
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.91
1.83
2.83
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
1.11
1.56
0.67
2.11
1.56
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
2.36
0.79
1.19
1.94
vs Stronger (24)
1.83
1.50
2.36
0.82
1.38
2.08
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.3%
Elgin goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.7%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Elgin is 0.20 points better than Clyde in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Elgin is 1.20 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (3.40 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Elgin is 0.20 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 5.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
10.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
22.4
20.7
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.9
9.3
8.6
2.0
1.6
2.4
22.1
16.3
25.6
vs Weaker (34)
10.8
10.1
11.6
3.1
3.1
3.0
22.5
21.7
23.3
% over line
59%
56%
61%
38%
46%
29%
59%
50%
67%
% under line
41%
44%
39%
62%
54%
71%
41%
50%
33%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.2
2.7
2.6
2.8
21.4
22.9
20.1
vs Stronger (41)
9.9
10.8
9.3
2.7
2.5
2.9
20.7
23.2
18.7
vs Similar (9)
7.7
7.0
8.7
2.8
3.0
2.5
24.0
22.0
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
44%
33%
40%
28%
52%
41%
56%
28%
% under line
62%
56%
67%
60%
72%
48%
59%
44%
72%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.6%
Under 21.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elgin or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Elgin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin or Clyde
77.8%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Elgin + Clyde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Clyde
41.0%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Draw + Clyde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elgin over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elgin, so a minus line means Elgin give that many goals of a start and Clyde receive them. At -1, Elgin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elgin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elgin)
Elgin -2
19.1%
Draw -2
18.0%
Clyde +2
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elgin)
Elgin -1
37.2%
Draw -1
21.8%
Clyde +1
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elgin)
Elgin +1
81.1%
Draw +1
11.3%
Clyde -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elgin)
Elgin +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.3%
Clyde -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.93
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.09
1.00
0.83
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
0.89
0.22
1.11
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.36
0.29
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (24)
1.00
0.58
1.45
0.27
0.62
0.85
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.82
0.83
2.00
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.56
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
0.50
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (24)
0.83
0.92
0.91
0.55
0.77
1.23
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton